A trade dispute between Iran and Turkey has escalated, with both nations imposing retaliatory measures over fuel taxes on trucks. The tensions come amid Turkey's recent strategic gains in Syria and a decline in Iran's regional influence.
Details from Kpler, a commodity intelligence company, reveal that Iran, whose daily oil exports had fallen below 400,000 barrels in January 2021, at the start of the Biden Administration, exported 1.6 million barrels daily last year.
Similarly, the United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) organization, which also tracks oil tankers carrying Iranian oil, says “In 2024, Iran exported 587 million barrels of oil, an increase of 10.75% compared to 2023’s 530 million barrels. Over the four years since the start of the Biden Administration, with less than one month remaining in its term, Iran has exported a cumulative total of nearly 1.98 billion barrels of oil.”
Kpler's data indicates that Iran exported approximately 1.64 billion barrels of crude oil and gas condensates during the four years of the Biden administration. Furthermore, Iran's daily fuel oil (mazut) exports averaged around 230,000 barrels during this period, consistent with figures reported by UANI.
The total value of Iran’s crude oil and condensate exports during Joe Biden’s presidency, excluding the costs associated with bypassing sanctions, is estimated at around $135 billion. The value of Iran’s exported fuel oil during this period is approximately $25 billion.
Iran keeps the pricing of its oil exports to its primary customer, China, undisclosed. Estimates suggest discounts of $10 to $30 per barrel, which would substantially lower the $135 billion revenue estimate. Additionally, Tehran allocates funds to obscure the oil's origin before delivery to China, and it remains unclear how much of the payment is in actual cash versus barter arrangements.
Last year, China accounted for 91% of Iran’s total exports of crude oil, condensates, and fuel oil.
Although Iran’s oil exports continued to rise last year, the volume dropped to below 1.3 million barrels per day in the final two months of the year. This decline is partly attributed to recent US sanctions on 35 tankers carrying Iranian oil and Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections, which has increased the likelihood of re-implementing the “maximum pressure” policy against the Islamic Republic.
Moreover, Iran’s only oil customers in China, small independent refineries, known as “teapots,” are under pressure from the Chinese government to either modernize or shut down due to high pollution levels and low efficiency. At least three Chinese teapots were decommissioned in recent months.
Over the past few years, alongside the Biden Administration’s leniency, Iran has used hundreds of oil tankers, known as the “ghost fleet,” to covertly sell oil. UANI identified 132 new vessels engaged in smuggling Iranian oil in 2024, bringing the total number of ghost fleet tankers tracked to 477 vessels: “In 2024, the organization’s intelligence led to over 330 flag revocations and contributed to the designation of 139 vessels by the US government.
Notably, out of the 139 tankers sanctioned this year, 110 were previously identified by UANI on its Ghost Armada list, showcasing UANI’s pivotal role in preemptive tracking.”
The decline in Iran’s daily oil exports to below 1.3 million barrels in November and December last year comes as President Masoud Pezeshkian’s government has set a target of exporting 1.85 million barrels of crude oil and condensates daily in the next Iranian fiscal year, which begins on March 21.
Turkey’s decision to revoke fuel tax exemptions for Iranian vehicles, effective December 29, has left hundreds of Iranian trucks stranded at border crossings, sparking outcry among drivers and escalating tensions between the two regional powers.
Turkey recently introduced a policy requiring Iranian trucks to pay a fuel tax equivalent to 155% of its special consumption tax. The Turkish newspaper Cumhuriyet reported that the tax “applies to all commercial vehicles with Iranian license plates, excluding buses.”
Hundreds of Iranian trucks cross into Turkey on weekly basis as their main transit route to European countries.
Turkish officials argue that the measure is a response to Iran’s Full Tank Plan, which mandates foreign trucks transiting Iran to pay a fuel surcharge for using Iran's extremely cheap diesel. Fuel in Iran is almost 20-fold cheaper than in other regional countries, because the government subsidizes gasoline and diesel. In addition to the subsidized fuel, Iran's rial has dropped to historic lows against foreign currencies, making fuel even cheaper for Turkish truckers.
Now, Iran has retaliated by halting fuel supplies to Turkish trucks as of January 3. The move has caused widespread disruptions, with Turkish drivers protesting what they see as unjust penalties.
Iranian truck drivers are also affected. Drivers report paying penalties of up to 27 liras per liter of diesel under Turkey’s new regulations.
One Iranian driver told Iran International that he earned 1.7 billion rials (over $2100) for transporting a load across Turkey, but incurred 2.7 billion rials (around $3400) in costs due to the new Turkish tax.
Economic and geopolitical implications
The trade dispute is compounded by the broader geopolitical rivalry between the two nations. Despite ambitious goals to increase annual bilateral trade to $30 billion, trade volume has remained at around $7.5–10 billion, reflecting persistent tensions.
These economic pressures mirror political divisions. Turkey's support for Syrian opposition groups and its backing of efforts to oust Bashar al-Assad stand in stark contrast to Iran’s investments in propping up Assad’s government. Recent Turkish gains in northern Syria have drawn criticism from Iran, with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei accusing unnamed neighbors of pursuing territorial ambitions in the region.
This trade dispute is not an isolated event but part of a broader pattern of actions perceived as hostile to Iranian trade. Turkey’s ally Azerbaijan recently blocked Iranian trucks from transiting through a key route, further restricting Iran’s access to European markets.
The escalating conflict has disrupted vital trade networks and exacerbated economic challenges for both nations. Without resolution, the row could deepen political and economic divides, setting a concerning precedent for regional trade and stability.
