Despite Khamenei's subtle nod to US talks, hardliners due to stay opposed
Iran's ruler Ali Khamenei during his recent speech, with President Masoud Pezeshkian next to him. January 2025
A prominent conservative commentator in Iran says that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's implicit remark about "making a deal" with the United States signals a shift in approach as Tehran faces growing challenges.
Senator Chris Van Hollen called new government efficiency czar Elon Musk's bid to shut down the US international development organization USAID a gift to adversaries including Iran.
"Make no mistake this effort by Elon Musk and so-called DOGE to shut down the Agency of international development is an absolute gift to our adversaries, to Russia to China, to Iran and others because AID is an essential instrument of US foreign policy and US national security policy," Van Hollen said.
DOGE is the Department of Government Efficiency formed and led by world's richest man Musk under President Donald Trump. Musk on Monday said Trump wants to shut USAID down, and its offices were closed and employees told to work from home.
"This has nothing to do with making the US government more efficient and everything to do with aiding and abetting our adversaries around the world," the Maryland junior senator told a cheering crowd outside USAID's Washington DC headquarters.
Human rights activists have expressed concern about the impact of Trump's earlier 90-day pause in foreign aid on Iran-related programs, with some saying the order could help Tehran further restrict its people’s access to information.
The United States has supported civil society and human rights in Iran on everything from documenting abuses by Tehran, Washington's Mideast arch enemy, to backing efforts to transcend official internet censorship.
Musk in a discussion broadcast on the social media platform he owns X said USAID was "beyond repair". Trump told reporters on Sunday that USAID had "been run by a bunch of radical lunatics ... We're getting them out, and then we'll make a decision."
The United States is convinced that a secret team of scientists in Iran is exploring a faster way to develop a nuclear weapon - within months - should Tehran decide to build one, The New York Times reported on Monday.
Iranian engineers and scientists are seeking to be able to turn nuclear fuel into a weapon within months rather than a year or more, the report said citing intelligence collected in the last months of the Biden administration.
The report cited US officials as saying Washington still believes that Iran and its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had not made a decision to develop a weapon.
In December, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said the Biden administration was concerned that a weakened Iran could build a nuclear weapon and that he was briefing President-elect Donald Trump's team on the risk.
The Biden administration's intelligence assessment has been relayed to Trump’s national security team during the transition of power, the New York Times added.
The report was released as the relatively moderate president of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, has publicly expressed willingness to re-engage with the United States in talks over its nuclear program, which it says is for peaceful purposes.
Setbacks dealt to Iran and its regional allies in a 15-month conflict with Israel and the inability of Iranian missiles to pierce US and Israeli air defenses, the New York Times reported, galvanized Iran to to seek new ways to deter its adversaries.
On January 10, then-CIA Director William Burns suggested that Iran’s weakened strategic position marked by regional setbacks could open the door to renewed nuclear negotiations.
"That sense of weakness could also theoretically create a possibility for serious negotiations," Burns said in an interview with NPR, referencing his experience with secret talks involving Tehran more than a decade ago.
Last month, Trump, Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu all described Iran as weakened, citing Tehran's reduced influence following the fall of its ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Israeli attacks on its air defenses and the killing of leaders of its armed Palestinian and Lebanese allies.
However, Iran's Supreme Leader denied his country's power has been undermined. "That delusional fantasist claimed that Iran has been weakened. The future will reveal who has truly been weakened."
The Swedish government has accused Tehran of using a Shi'ite Muslim mosque in Stockholm to spy on Sweden and the Iranian diaspora there.
The Swedish Security Service has assessed that the Imam Ali Islamic Center in Stockholm was used by Iran as a means of spying and conduct activities threatening security, said Sweden's Minister for Social Affairs Jakob Forssmed on his X account.
The Swedish minister called it "extremely serious," adding that Sweden had stopped all state monetary aid to the center. "State funds should not be used for activities that conflict with fundamental democratic values."
"An additional process" is under way, he added, without providing further details.
Iranian cleric Mohsen Hakimollahi, the Islamic Center's imam, was arrested nearly two weeks and faces deportation from Sweden, Expressen reported Friday.
“He has been missing for more than ten days, and we learned through various channels that he is in one of the Swedish Migration Board's detention centers and will soon be deported from the country,” added the source.
The Imam Ali Islamic Center, considered the largest Shi'ite institution in Northern Europe, has not issued a public statement on the matter.
Hakimollahi, aged 63, was transferred from Iran to Sweden to manage the Shi'ite center and had resided in the country for several years, developing connections with local political figures and religious organizations.
The costs of Iran’s nuclear program are negligible compared to the achievement of gaining nuclear technology despite sanctions, the country’s atomic energy chief said on Sunday.
"We shouldn’t focus on weighing costs against benefits. While we are paying a heavy price due to sanctions, the emphasis is not on the costs," said Mohammad Eslami, an Iranian vice president and head of the Atomic Energy Organization.
When asked by a state TV interviewer to explain how the expenses are justified, he underscored the importance of acquiring advanced technology that so-called arrogant global powers seek to deny other nations, particularly Iran.
Eslami argued that evaluating the program’s costs and benefits should occur only after what he described as the required technological capabilities were achieved.
“We are now on this path. We’ve reached a stage where we can apply nuclear technology in various fields,” he added.
He maintained that Iran’s nuclear program is transparent and peaceful, accusing critics of using it to fuel what he called Iranophobia internationally.
Eslami's remarks came after Ali Larijani, an advisor to the Supreme Leader, signaled a softer stance on Iran’s nuclear program, calling it vital but stressing that it should not overshadow broader progress as “people must live their lives.”
The nuclear program is a pillar of our development, but not its entirety, he said on Saturday, stressing that despite his direct role in past negotiations, its scope must remain within defined limits.
"The nuclear issue is part of our national strength, but it is not all of it. People must live their lives, and progress must be achieved in various fields. The nuclear agreement [JCPOA] preserved nuclear knowledge, ensuring its continuation, but reduced the number of centrifuges from 9,000 to 5,000," Larijani, who is considered a moderate conservative in the Islamic Republic's political spectrum, argued.
Iran has faced ongoing electricity and gas shortages due to underinvestment and the impact of US-led sanctions which have hindered modernization efforts in its power, oil and gas sectors.
Iran’s leadership has been wrestling with the idea of re-engaging with Washington over the nuclear program in order to reduce US economic sanctions.
Iran's nuclear program: costs vs benefits
On January 23, Eslami highlighted the economic benefits of the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, saying it cost $1.8 billion but has supplied 70 billion kilowatt hours of electricity to the grid in more than a decade. He estimated that producing the same amount of energy from fossil fuels would have cost $8 billion. However, government data shows that the reactor produces just 2% of Iran's annual electricity needs.
Critics argue the program’s costs outweigh its benefits.
Outspoken reformist commentator Sadegh Zibakalam criticized the nuclear program in a post on X on January 23, questioning its value.
“Mr. Zarif says we had no intention of producing nuclear weapons and could have built them if we wanted. So why incur such enormous costs for over 20 years?” he wrote. Zibakalam also cited unfulfilled promises to build five nuclear plants comparable to Bushehr.
In a letter to hardline lawmaker Hamid Rasaei in February 2023, Zibakalam argued that Iran could procure fuel for its Bushehr power plant through the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
“Not only does our insistence on producing nuclear fuel domestically have no economic justification due to its high cost, but also other things like speaking of 'our proud nuclear achievements' are one-sided and exaggerated.”
Since US President Donald Trump imposed what he called maximum pressure sanctions in his first term starting in 2018, Iran’s national currency has depreciated nearly 20-fold, and inflation has surged to 40%.
The sanctions severely disrupted the economy, particularly in the banking, trade, transportation and insurance sectors.
Sanctions have severely disrupted multiple sectors of Iran’s economy, particularly international trade, which has been hit hard by rising costs in banking, transportation, shipping, and insurance.
In a recent state-run television program, Saeed-Reza Ameli, former secretary of Iran's Supreme Cultural Revolution Council, said sanctions have cost the Iranian economy $1.2 trillion over the past 12 years.
Economist Vahid Shaghaghi-Shahri echoed similar concerns in an interview with the Etemad newspaper last week, saying Iran’s gross domestic product has shrunk from $640 billion to $400 billion over the same period.
Without sanctions, he estimated, the economy could have grown to $1 trillion.
In 1979, just ten days passed between Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s return from exile in France and the fall of the monarchy, paving the way for the establishment of the Islamic Republic under his and other clerics' control.
Known as Dahe-ye Fajr (“Ten Days of Dawn”), this period is officially commemorated annually with various ceremonies. Due to differences between the Iranian and Western calendars, this period can begin on January 31 or February 1 and end on February 10 or 11.
For supporters of the Islamic Republic, Fajr (“Dawn”) symbolizes the "new era" in Iran’s history marked by the fall of the monarchy and the establishment of an Islamic governance.
Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's arrival at Mehrabad Airport, February 1, 1979
Q: What are the key ceremonies during Dahe-ye Fajr?
On the first day of the ten-day "Dawn" period, a ceremony takes place at Khomeini’s mausoleum in southern Tehran, commemorating his return to Iran after 14 years in exile, the majority of which he spent in Iraq.
On the final day, state-sponsored rallies take place nationwide to mark the Islamic Revolution's victory. The president addresses participants at Azadi Square (“Freedom Square”) in Tehran, and the day is observed as a public holiday.
State dignitaries as Khomeini's mausoleum, February 1, 2023
Q: How does the state’s media cover the events?
State-run television channels extensively cover all the ceremonies of Dahe-ye Fajr, particularly the Revolution Day rallies. These broadcasts often feature large crowds, which Iranian state officials claim reflect widespread support for the Islamic Republic and its Supreme Leader.
State-sponsored Revolution Day (22 Bahman) rally in Tehran, February 11, 2024
Q: What criticisms have been raised about the media coverage of these events?
Individual critics and opposition groups argue that participation in these rallies has significantly declined in recent years.
They also say that state authorities use incentives like gifts, paid leave, or implicit threats to compel attendance – particularly among civil servants, soldiers, students, and workers.
Q: How did the monarchy fall in 1979?
Months of massive protests forced King Mohammad-Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran, to leave the country with his family on January 16, 1979.
He entrusted a Regency Council and opposition Prime Minister Shapour Bakhtiar to manage the country in his absence.
Khomeini had vowed to return to Iran. Bakhtiar initially attempted to block his return by closing Iran's airports.
However, widespread protests, led by both Islamists and leftist groups, compelled him to reopen them.
King Mohammad-Reza Pahlavi and Queen Farah departing for Egypt, January 16, 1979
Q: What happened when Khomeini returned to Iran?
On February 1, Khomeini arrived in Tehran on a chartered Air France plane, accompanied by opposition figures who had supported him during his exile.
Upon arrival, millions of Iranians flooded the streets to welcome the 76-year-old cleric.
Khomeini traveled directly to Behesht-e Zahra, Tehran’s largest cemetery, to honor the “martyrs of the Revolution.”
In a fiery speech, he declared the Shah-appointed Bakhtiar government "illegal" and announced his intention to establish a new administration.
“I will appoint a government. I will slap this government on the mouth. I will establish a government with the support of the nation because the nation has accepted me,” Khomeini proclaimed.
Ruhollah Khomeini's first speech after arrival in Tehran at Behesht-e Zahra cemetery, February 1, 1979
Q: What did Khomeini do after his return to Iran?
A few days after that speech, Khomeini appointed Mehdi Bazargan, a moderate Islamist scholar and politician, as prime minister.
By February 11, revolutionary forces had seized control of all government institutions. The state broadcaster officially announced the monarchy's collapse the same day.
Q: What happened to Khomeini’s closest aides after his return?
Ironically, many of Khomeini’s close aides from his time in exile were later accused of treason or marginalized – and ultimately faced tragic fates.
Sadegh Ghotbzadeh, who served as foreign minister between November 1979 and August 1980, was accused of plotting to assassinate Khomeini and of attempting a coup to topple the newly established Islamic Republic in April 1982. He was executed by firing squad in September of the same year.
Another aide, Hassan Banisadr, who was elected as the Islamic Republic’s first president (from February 1980 to June 1981), was impeached and deposed by Parliament, allegedly for opposing the clerics in power. He went into hiding and later escaped to France, where he lived until his death in Paris in 2021.
In the now-infamous photos of Khomeini descending the stairs from the Air France plane upon his return to Tehran, state-run news outlets have edited out several of his aides who were by his side.
Today, the only individual still visible next to Khomeini in the official photos is the airliner’s pilot, holding his hand.
However, Mohammad Mohajeri, the former editor of the hardline daily Kayhan, also noted that Khamenei's remark is likely to provoke backlash from hardliners and those cautious about a potential rapprochement with Washington.
In an interview with the Jamaran News website, which is linked to former President Mohammad Khatami of the reformist faction, Mohajeri noted that Khamenei's use of the term "making a deal" suggests the possibility of an agreement. He argued that this could signal support for President Masoud Pezeshkian's efforts to push for sanctions relief.
"It won’t be easy and will take time," Mohajeri added. "Nonetheless, the statement could mark the beginning of a new strategy."
According to Jamaran, Mohajeri was referring to a sentence in Khamenei's latest speech on January 28 this year, in which he said: "Behind the smiles of diplomacy, there are always hidden and malicious enmities and resentments. We must open our eyes and be careful with whom we are dealing, trading, and talking."
“When a person knows his opponent, he may make a deal, but he knows what to do," Khamenei added.
Khamenei made these remarks while sitting beside President Masoud Pezeshkian, who has publicly expressed Tehran's openness to talks. The media widely interpreted the Supreme Leader's statements as a "green light for negotiations."
Asked if Khamenei's statement indicated a green light for starting the talks, Mohajeri said: "I do not like that expression. However, I believe this highlighted a new strategy." He added, "It was interesting that while the hardliners expected Khamenei to endorse their views, he did not express any opposition to negotiations though he warned officials to be wary of the enemy's deceit."
Mohajeri said Khamenei’s remarks angered hardliners, who may remain silent for now but will soon find another pretext to attack the government. "Before long, you’ll see them lashing out over other issues," he said, adding that they may also target negotiators, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who is set to lead the talks.
In recent weeks, former Foreign Minister and current aide to President Pezeshkian, Javad Zarif, has come under increasing attack, with hardliners accusing him of proposing negotiations with the Trump administration.
Zarif, however, denied the claim, telling Jamaran News, "We did not make any proposal. We simply responded to their suggestion for interaction."
While reformist-aligned media have strongly defended Zarif, some analysts in Tehran suggest that his position within the government is not particularly strong.
Some conservative figures in Iran, including former state TV chief and Tourism Minister Ezzatollah Zarghami, have also weighed in on recent calls for talks with the US.
While Zarghami had told Iranian media that such proposals had created a "bipolar situation" in the country, he wrote in an X post after Khamenei's remarks that "the Leader’s clever measure put an end to the bipolar situation between supporters and opponents of negotiations with the United States."