Sweden’s foreign ministry summoned Iran’s ambassador on Friday, demanding the immediate release of Ahmadreza Djalali, a Swedish-Iranian academic on death row in Tehran, citing serious concerns about his worsening health.
“Iran is very alone at the moment” said Barkey, an adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington DC.
The push for a resolution to a decades-old insurgency by the Kurdish Workers Party against the Turkish state comes as the Middle East's tectonic plates shift and global alliances are in flux as President Donald Trump cast upends US commitments.
"We have a completely changed strategic situation in the Middle East," said Barkey, "no one at the moment has any dominance in the Middle East and it's up for grabs."
"Iran, for the foreseeable will not be able to do what it used to do in the past," added Barkey.
After 15-months of direct combat and proxy warfare pitting Iran against Israel throughout the region, Tehran has come off worse.
It's main ally Hezbollah in Lebanon took a heavy toll from an Israeli ground invasion and air strikes. Most notably, Iran's oldest ally in Syria's Assad dynasty was toppled by Sunni Islamist rebels closer to Turkey, giving Ankara a new regional ward.
How Turkey benefits from peace with the PKK
The jailed leader of the PKK Abdullah Ocalan called on its members to lay down arms in an address from his island prison near Istanbul on Feb. 27.
That announcement was followed by a ceasefire days later which ended 40 years of armed struggle for a Kurdish homeland.
While President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's rapprochement is largely driven by domestic political considerations to create a new constitution enabling him to run for a third presidential term in 2028, Turkey stands to likely make gains in Northern Iraq, where many PKK fighters are stationed.
Turkey’s gains may be Iran’s losses.
“Both Turkey and Iran would like to influence Iraqi Kurds,” said Barkey.
The Turks and PKK making peace formally will help in those efforts to increase influence.
The relationship between Turkey and Iran Barkey characterized as complex, but one in which there are at least cordial ties and a stable border. Both Islamic nations, however, are revisionist with ideals of grandeur.
Turkey's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidan, said in an interview with Al Jazeera Arabic last month that Iran's foreign policy of relying on militias led to more losses than gains.
Shifting tectonic plates
Recent diplomatic tensions between Tehran and Ankara represents a broader shift in the Middle East.
Add to the mix Turkey reportedly offering to send peacekeepers to Ukraine, contingent on the war ending with Russia – and Israel, striking southern Syria and attempting to increase ties with Syrian Kurds.
Israel says it part of a new policy to demilitarize southern Syria, but the new government led by the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) hardline Islamist group which is close to Turkey has denounced Israel.
“The Israelis also are risking by going too far into trying to punish the Syrians, forcing the Syrians, essentially to look for allies,” said Barkey on Eye for Iran.
One ally that Damascus will not reach out to is Tehran, maintaining its anti-Islamic republic stance.
“That’s it,” said Barkey on there being zero chance that Iran could reestablish itself in Syria, while Ankara enjoys a close relationship with the new HTS leaders.
“The Syrians and HTS blame Iran for propping Assad in power all these years, that Assad would not have succeeded in staying in power this long, or even winning the civil war if it wasn't for Iranian support.”
Reports: The offer of Turkish peacekeepers in Ukraine
Turkey is not signaling support of Ukraine by offering up peacekeepers, said Barkey.
Rather it's a chance for Erdogan to appear relevant on the world stage. Iran, on the other, despite its relationship with Russia, is irrelevant.
“Before Iran was a very useful if not a direct instrument of the Russians but a useful actor on the international scene because it created so many problems for the United States and its allies,” said Barkey.
Barkey questioned Iran's ability to send ballistic missiles to Russia after significant blows by Israel to its stockpile.
Meanwhile, Russia has positioned itself as a mediator between Washington and Tehran over potential nuclear talks.
"No leader has done more for Russia than Trump, so Moscow could pressure Iran," Barkey told Eye for Iran.
"It is quite possible that the Russians will put some pressure on the Iranians, whether it's real or make believe," said Barkey.
The changing alliances, new world order and the stable unpredictability of Trump, may further destabilize the Islamic Republic while Turkey gains the upper hand in the region.
You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran with Henri Barkey, an adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, on YouTube or you can listen on Spotify, Apple, Amazon, Castbox or any major podcast platform.
While the deputy chairman of the Iranian parliament's national security committee appears to be adamant that Russia will consider Iran's interests in its negotiations with America, the committee's former chairman has once again expressed concern that "Russia might sacrifice Iran for its own interests."
The remarks of Abbas Moghtadaei, deputy chairman of the Majles national security committee, suggested that Iran's interests factor into Russia’s calculations. "In its negotiations with the United States, Russia also considers Iran's interests," he said.
He argued that Russia would take Iran’s interests into account, citing the recently signed strategic cooperation agreement between the two countries and asserting that Moscow will "consider its ally's interests in its foreign relations." However, Russia has repeatedly stated in the past that Iran is not a strategic ally.
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and other officials have repeatedly referred to Iran as a partner, distinguishing their relationship from Russia’s formal alliances, such as with China or members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). In August 2022, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledged the strength of Russia-Iran relations but stopped short of calling Iran a strategic ally.
The hardline Raja News, the pro-reform Fararu website, and the pro-Pezeshkian Etemad newspaper have also rejected the notion of Iran being a strategic ally of Russia. However, Moscow is still likely to back Tehran when it serves its interests, using Iran as regional and international leverage in its dealings with the West.
Meanwhile, in an interview with Etemad, Heshamatollah Falahatpisheh, former chief of the Iranian Parliament's national security and foreign relations committee, stated, "The revival of the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers was sacrificed for Russia's war in Ukraine. I fear Iran may now be sacrificed for Russia’s peace with Ukraine."
He was referring to the West’s reluctance to negotiate with Iran following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which led to the suspension of nuclear talks in March 2022. Since then, Tehran has supported Russia’s war effort, supplying weapons used against Ukraine.
Asked about the likelihood of Iran's interests being compromised in talks between Moscow and Washington, Falahatpisheh said, "Political developments since 2021 have shown that international variables directly affect Iran's nuclear diplomacy and its position in global affairs."
He recalled that three years ago, when Iran and the West were close to reaching a nuclear deal, Russia formally urged the United States to exempt Iran-Russia trade from US sanctions on both countries. However, Washington rejected the request, viewing it as an attempt by Moscow to exploit the nuclear negotiations for its own benefit.
The politician accused Russia of deceiving Iran and obstructing the revival of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal at the time. Expressing concern over Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s recent visit to Iran, he warned, "Once again, the Russians might use Iran as leverage in their dealings with Washington."
Meanwhile, Iranian foreign policy analyst Qasem Mohebali told the conservative Nameh News website that "Russia's mediation between Iran and the United States is unlikely to benefit Iran."
"It appears that the Americans have promised certain concessions to Russia regarding the Ukraine war, and in return, Russia has agreed to offer some concessions to Washington concerning Iran," Mohebali said.
However, he argued that this arrangement is not in Iran’s best interest, as "Russia is likely to use Iran as a bargaining chip in its negotiations with the United States over Ukraine." He also questioned the effectiveness of mediation by a country that is itself engaged in negotiations to resolve its own challenges.
"Iran is in an ambiguous international position," Mohebali concluded. "However, the disputes between Europe and the Arab states on one side and the United States on the other, along with the divide between Russia and America, provide Iran with an opportunity to extract some concessions. Still, Moscow's mediation is unlikely to serve Tehran’s interests."
“We have received highly concerning reports about Ahmadreza Djalali’s deteriorating health," the ministry said in a statement, adding that Iran’s ambassador had been urgently summoned.
During the meeting Sweden urged Iran to free Djalali on humanitarian grounds, according to the statement. “The summons demanded that Ahmadreza Djalali be immediately released on humanitarian grounds so that he can be reunited with his family.”
Sweden also called for urgent medical treatment for Djalali as his health condition deteriorates. “At the same time, he must immediately receive the medical care he so clearly needs.”
Djalali, a specialist in disaster medicine, was arrested in 2016 during a visit to Iran and later sentenced to death on charges of espionage—a conviction widely criticized by international human rights organizations as unfounded. Amnesty International said his sentence was issued relying on forced confessions obtained under torture.
His health has significantly declined during his imprisonment, with reports indicating severe weight loss and inadequate medical attention.
He has has lost a considerable amount of weight and is in urgent need of medical care, according to a report by by Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter, citing Djalali's lawyer and family.
Additionally, Djalali has been experiencing dangerously low blood pressure, exacerbating concerns about his well-being, according to the report.
During Friday's meeting, Sweden said it asked Iran not to carry out Djalali's death sentence. “At the meeting, Sweden's clear protests against the death penalty and demands that it not be carried out were reiterated.”
In January, the European Parliament adopted a resolution demanding the immediate and unconditional release of all EU-Iranian dual nationals currently detained in Iranian prisons, including Djalali.
