Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah seek to re-establish a presence on Syrian territory through increased cooperation with local forces, Israel's Alma research institute said in a new analysis.
Alma, which focuses on threats to northern Israel, assessed that Iran and Hezbollah want to reactivate the original land corridor stretching from the Iraqi border in eastern Syria to the Lebanese border in the west.
The institute highlighted recent reports of a potential halving of US troop numbers in Syria and the commencement of some withdrawals, such as from the Conico base in the Deir ez-Zor region.
Alma argued that this US drawdown would likely further embolden Iran and Hezbollah to solidify their foothold in the Syrian part of the corridor.
Even before a possible US withdrawal from the al-Tanf region in southeastern Syria, the analysis warned that a reduced American presence could lead to a significant shortening of the corridor route towards Lebanon and southern Syria.
This would potentially re-expose the Daraa province, bordering Israel, to increased Iranian influence and presence, Alma concluded.
Reports indicate a significant withdrawal of Iranian forces and allied militias from Syria after President Bashar Assad's removal in December, with personnel moving to Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon, abandoning military equipment.
While the dominant Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which toppled the Assad government, is expected to block an immediate IRGC return due to past support for Assad, the Wall Street Journal cited US officials as saying that Iran will eventually attempt to re-establish its regional presence.
At its height, Iran maintained a substantial military infrastructure in Syria.
According to the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, Iran had as many as 10,000 IRGC forces in Syria at its peak during Syria's civil war, and another 5,000 army troops, plus thousands more Iranian-backed militia forces.
Their research showed that Iran held 55 military bases in Syria in addition to 515 military points.
The Saudi-owned Al Majalla news site reported similar numbers, citing that Syria had 830 foreign military sites under Assad, 70% of which belonged to Iran, 570.
The plan was presented by Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi in writing to US President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff during the three-hour talks.
Tehran proposed that in the first stage, it would temporarily reduce its uranium enrichment level to 3.67% in exchange for access to financial assets frozen by the United States and permission to export its oil, the diplomatic sources told Iran International.
In the second phase, the sources added, Iran would permanently end high-level enrichment and restore the United Nations nuclear watchdog's inspections if the United States lifts further sanctions on Iran and persuades Britain, Germany and France to refrain from triggering the so-called snapback of UN sanctions on Tehran.
In this phase, Iran would also commit to implementing the Additional Protocol, a supplementary agreement that allows the UN nuclear watchdog to carry out surprise inspections at sites not declared to the agency.
Tehran ended that compliance in February 2021 after Trump in his first term withdrew from a previous international deal over Iran's nuclear program in 2018.
The third and final stage calls for the US congress to approve the nuclear agreement and for Washington to lift both primary and secondary sanctions, while Iran would transfer its highly enriched uranium stockpiles to a third country.
Iran denies seeking a nuclear weapon and the US intelligence assesses that Tehran has not yet resolved to build one, but the Trump administration has warned Iran it must come to a nuclear deal or face attack.
A second round due to be held in Rome on Saturday could prove more rocky than the amicable first round in which Iran submitted its plan for a deal.
Washington toughened its public stance on Tuesday, with both the White House and Witkoff saying that the US goal in negotiations would be the wholesale end of Iran's nuclear program, a notion Iran has repeatedly called a non-starter.
Iran's proposal welcomed by Witkoff
US envoy Witkoff welcomed the proposals presented by the Iranian side, the sources told Iran International, surprising the Iranian delegation in Muscat.
Iranian officialdom appeared cheered by the first round of talks, with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remarking in a meeting with senior military commanders on Tuesday that "the initial steps have been implemented well".
A diplomatic source outside Tehran expressed skepticism to Iran International of the Islamic Republic's intentions in the talks and said it seeks to delay a foreign attack by staggering an agreement over several complex phases.
“One of the reasons Iran’s Supreme Leader agreed to allow the resumption of negotiations is the need to buy more time, because he knows Iran currently lacks the ability to defend itself against another airstrike," the source said.
“Iran is mainly stalling to buy time to rebuild its air defense capabilities, which were all destroyed by Israel in late October, and to restore its capacity to produce surface-to-surface missiles which were damaged in that same Israeli attack,” the source added.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said on Thursday that his actions had previously thwarted Iran's ability to build a bomb, appearing to respond to a New York Times report that President Trump had halted Israeli plans to attack Iran.
"Netanyahu has led countless secret and open actions in the campaign against Iran's nuclear program that only thanks to them Iran does not have a nuclear arsenal today," the statement said.
Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said on Wednesday Iran was "not far" from possessing an atomic bomb.
"It's like a puzzle: they have the pieces and maybe one day they could put them back together. There's still a long way to go before we get there. But they're not far away, we have to admit that," he said in an interview with Le Monde.
"It's not enough to tell the international community 'we don't have nuclear weapons' for them to believe it. We have to be able to verify it," Grossi said.
In its latest report in March, the IAEA warned that over the past three months, Iran had significantly expanded its reserves of highly enriched uranium, and if this trend continues, its stockpile could theoretically be enough to produce six nuclear bombs.
