Iran, Hezbollah eyeing renewed foothold in Syria - Israeli think tank

Residents stand on a street during a joint US- Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) patrol in the countryside of Qamishli, in northeastern Syria February 8, 2024.
Residents stand on a street during a joint US- Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) patrol in the countryside of Qamishli, in northeastern Syria February 8, 2024.

Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah seek to re-establish a presence on Syrian territory through increased cooperation with local forces, Israel's Alma research institute said in a new analysis.

Alma, which focuses on threats to northern Israel, assessed that Iran and Hezbollah want to reactivate the original land corridor stretching from the Iraqi border in eastern Syria to the Lebanese border in the west.

The institute highlighted recent reports of a potential halving of US troop numbers in Syria and the commencement of some withdrawals, such as from the Conico base in the Deir ez-Zor region.

Alma argued that this US drawdown would likely further embolden Iran and Hezbollah to solidify their foothold in the Syrian part of the corridor.

Source: Alma
Source: Alma

Even before a possible US withdrawal from the al-Tanf region in southeastern Syria, the analysis warned that a reduced American presence could lead to a significant shortening of the corridor route towards Lebanon and southern Syria.

This would potentially re-expose the Daraa province, bordering Israel, to increased Iranian influence and presence, Alma concluded.

Reports indicate a significant withdrawal of Iranian forces and allied militias from Syria after President Bashar Assad's removal in December, with personnel moving to Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon, abandoning military equipment.

While the dominant Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which toppled the Assad government, is expected to block an immediate IRGC return due to past support for Assad, the Wall Street Journal cited US officials as saying that Iran will eventually attempt to re-establish its regional presence.

At its height, Iran maintained a substantial military infrastructure in Syria.

According to the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, Iran had as many as 10,000 IRGC forces in Syria at its peak during Syria's civil war, and another 5,000 army troops, plus thousands more Iranian-backed militia forces.

Their research showed that Iran held 55 military bases in Syria in addition to 515 military points.

The Saudi-owned Al Majalla news site reported similar numbers, citing that Syria had 830 foreign military sites under Assad, 70% of which belonged to Iran, 570.