Iran’s central plateau could be depopulated over water crisis, academic warns
The Marreh wetland near Qom, one of the most important remaining water bodies in Iran’s central plateau, serves as a key stopover for migratory birds traveling along the historic flyway between Siberia and the Nile.
A senior Iranian water expert warned on Sunday that the country’s central plateau could be emptied of inhabitants if authorities fail to address the worsening water crisis, as officials in Tehran admit that rationing in the capital began too late to avert shortages.
Iran’s underground missile and ammunition facilities withstood the 12-day conflict and US strikes thanks to two decades of hardening and design, said Iran’s passive defense chief in an interview with the Story of the War podcast on Saturday.
“Almost all underground and under-mountain missile infrastructure remains intact and has no serious problems,” Gholamreza Jalali said, crediting long-running operational measures and engineering choices.
The priority given to aerospace and missile assets, Jalali said, guided 20 years of planning for missile cities and depots built into mountains and deep underground. Only minor repairable damage occurred at some access points, he added.
Underground networks and nuclear sites
Sensitive nuclear centers, Jalali said, were placed in safe spaces after early threat assessments, adding that he personally proposed the protected design concept years ago.
“The shadow of war was present from the very beginning of our activities, and based on the threat scenarios, it was decided that sensitive nuclear sites should be designed in secure underground locations beneath mountains.”
During the 12-day war and the US attacks on nuclear facilities, added Jalali, some foreign reports highlighted the confrontation between “bunker buster bombs” and Iranian concrete engineering. “It was an oversimplified interpretation of designs."
“Regarding the US claim of destroying nuclear facilities, it must be said that further details remain classified and confidential,” he added.
Banks cyber security not addressed yet
Jalali pointed to cyber-attacks on Iranian banks, saying two major banks shared a core platform with unresolved weaknesses. “For banking security, we designed a regional secure model and obtained funding, but execution rests with the relevant bodies,” he said.
Jalali also addressed the use of foreign messaging platforms by military figures, saying none of Iran’s commanders, living or dead, had ever used WhatsApp, while reports suggested some Hamas leaders had relied on it.
Advanced surveillance and data-analysis systems – spanning artificial intelligence, satellites, and signal tracking – are fully controlled by Israel and the United States, he said, adding that using such platforms exposes communications to monitoring and targeting.
“When we are in confrontation with such adversaries, we must assume total visibility across digital space.”
Former communications minister Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi said in August that Iranian officials with sensitive information on their phones were easy targets for Israeli cyber operations during June's 12-day war, adding that Israel exploited platforms such as WhatsApp to track them.
“In the recent war, those who had information and were of interest to Israel were easy prey for hacking,” Azari Jahromi said, but did not identify those targeted.
Shelters kept confidential
Tehran has multiple shelter options, including metro stations, car parks, and basements, but officials avoided announcing them publicly to prevent panic, he added.
Local authorities received training to guide people in emergencies, while Tehran Municipality was working to upgrade facilities and warning systems for possible use as public shelters, according to him.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian visits the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization in Tehran, Iran, November 2, 2025.
Iran had fully expected attacks on its nuclear facilities and launched a plan to prepare, he added.
Limited drills in Kashan and broader exercises at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan helped minimize risks, Jalali said, adding that chemical storage was cleared and activities scaled back before strikes, and post-attack tests confirmed no radioactive contamination.
Iran’s Central Bank’s latest quarterly report shows capital flight hit a historic peak in the spring of 2025, underscoring the depth of the country’s financial strain.
The report, published on the Bank’s website, puts the capital account balance in the first quarter of the fiscal year (beginning March 21) at around minus $9 billion, the highest outflow ever recorded.
Last year, capital flight totaled about $20.7 billion, triple the figure in 2020. If this year’s pace continues, outflows could reach $36 billion by March 2026, roughly 10 percent of Iran’s GDP.
It remains unclear how much of the current exodus reflects ordinary citizens moving savings abroad versus businessmen or individuals close to power.
Earlier this year, Hossein Samsami, a member of parliament’s Economic Committee, said that from 2018 to mid-2025, $95 billion in non-oil export revenues never returned to Iran.
Declining foreign trade
Central Bank data show around $80 billion in capital flight between 2018 and 2024, suggesting much of the outflow is tied to foreign trade channels. Yet Iran’s economy minister recently insisted that the private sector accounts for only 15 percent of the country’s foreign trade.
That gap points to individuals with government links or ties to quasi-state institutions, including the Revolutionary Guards, as key drivers of tens of billions of dollars leaving the country.
The report also shows a sharp drop in export revenues. Oil income, including crude, petroleum products, and gas, fell by $3 billion in the spring compared to the same period last year, totaling $15 billion. Non-oil exports slipped by another $1 billion to under $11 billion.
Imports declined by about $800 million to $17.2 billion, while the services trade balance turned negative at minus $2.8 billion.
Overall, Iran exported $6 billion more in goods and services than it imported this spring. Yet $9 billion left the country during the same period through capital flight, erasing the surplus on paper.
Worse to come?
The deficit may rise if oil prices or exports drop—as seems to be the case according to most recent information.
Tanker-tracking data from Kpler show Iranian oil offloading at Chinese ports has fallen in recent months to about 1.2 million barrels per day, down from an average of 1.44 million earlier in the year.
Amid the tightening squeeze, officials continue to warn of severe foreign-currency shortages and the Central Bank’s inability to finance imports or investment.
Meysam Zohoorian, a member of parliament’s Economic Committee, reported this week that the Planning and Budget Organization has told lawmakers it is “stuck with three billion dollars” needed for investment in oil fields.
President Masoud Pezeshkian painted an even darker picture, asserting that his administration can hardly source a third of that amount for development projects.
“We are negotiating over one billion dollars to figure out where to find it,” he said.
Defeating the authoritarian rule requires learning from democratic societies, dissident activist Masih Alinejad said on Saturday, calling for unity among the opposition groups of Iran, Russia and China against the three allied countries' dictatorships.
The dissident activist made the remarks in Berlin on the sidelines of the annual forum of the World Liberty Congress, a movement she co-founded in 2022 along with Russian activist Garry Kasparov and Venezuelan opposition leader Leopoldo López.
“We intend to increase pressure on dictators by uniting opposition movements from different countries," she said.
Alinejad compared Iran’s compulsory hijab laws and political repression to the Berlin Wall, telling Iran International that Iranians are destroying this wall through their defiance.
The World Liberty Congress is holding its second annual gathering on the sidelines of the Freedom Week marking the 36th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall.
The gathering has brought together 180 participants from 60 countries including opposition figures, lawmakers, and rights activists from Iran, Russia, Venezuela, and China.
The event aims to coordinate global strategies to defend democracy and counter the spread of autocracy.
Practicing democracy in exile
Alinejad said the three founders of the World Liberty Congress had decided not to stand in this year’s internal elections to demonstrate democratic accountability.
“Mr. Leopoldo López, Garry Kasparov and I oppose Khamenei, Maduro and Putin, and to prove we are not like the dictators, we told the Berlin parliament that in the World Liberty Congress elections we will step aside so others can present themselves as the congress’s president, vice president and secretary this year.”
“This is an exercise to show democratic countries that we can hold elections and free ourselves from dictators,” added Alinejad.
The activist previously defined the World Liberty Congress as an alternative to the United Nations, which she said "has become a place to unite dictators."
The new push for an electricity grid linking Iran, Russia and Azerbaijan grid promises closer energy integration but could leave Tehran more exposed to Moscow’s leverage as rival corridors threaten to dilute its regional role.
In mid-October 2025, Azerbaijan’s deputy prime minister announced the formal launch of an electricity-linkage project among the three countries.
The plan builds on Iran’s 2024 proposal to route Russian electricity through its territory to Persian Gulf Arab states, advancing earlier diplomatic pledges. Full integration is targeted by late 2025, alongside coordination with Armenia.
The initiative fits Russia’s push for southern energy routes under sanctions, but could undercut the strategic weight of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC)—the trade artery linking India, Iran and Russia through Azerbaijan.
Shared leverage
A connected grid could deliver real economic and strategic gains.
By balancing supply and demand across borders, it might ease chronic blackouts—especially in Iran, where sanctions have crippled capacity.
Surplus electricity from Russia and Azerbaijan’s renewables could offset Iranian shortages, while shared infrastructure encourages cross-border power sales and investment.
For Iran, participation promises stability and regional relevance; for Russia, another path around Western-controlled networks; for Azerbaijan, a global profile built on “green power outreach.”
Iran’s balancing act
Integration could offer Tehran both relief and peril.
Years of underinvestment and gas dependency have left its grid aging and inefficient. Sanctions block access to capital and modern equipment, limiting meaningful expansion.
To benefit from the move and reduce vulnerability, Tehran needs to diversify its energy mix, curb waste and reform governance—meaning remove favoritism from energy planning and open the sector to transparent partnerships.
These are tall orders without which the project may only deepen Tehran’s reliance on Moscow.
Caspian crossroads
The grid plan also intersects with rival connectivity schemes.
The International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC)—a 7,200-kilometer multimodal corridor linking Mumbai to St. Petersburg via Iran and Azerbaijan—has been a lifeline for sanction-hit Tehran, yet it faces chronic delays and funding gaps.
Meanwhile, the EU-backed Black Sea Energy Corridor, launched in 2022, will send 4 GW of Azerbaijani wind and solar power to Europe by 2032. Faster, cleaner and politically safer, it already attracts more Western financing.
If momentum shifts toward the Black Sea route, Iran could lose as much as $10–15 billion in potential transit fees and influence, reinforcing its peripheral role in regional trade.
The choice ahead
Moscow’s dominance—and its expanding 2025 alliance with Tehran—could give it decisive leverage over energy supply, echoing Gazprom’s tactics in Europe.
Western sanctions on both Moscow and Tehran could deter investment and drag Baku into secondary penalties.
Regional flashpoints—from Armenia-Azerbaijan tensions to Iran’s domestic volatility—add fragility. Environmental and technical challenges add further strain, chief among them: fluctuating Caspian water levels and climate stress on Iran’s water-energy nexus.
The Iran-Russia-Azerbaijan grid could make Tehran a regional electricity hub or entrench it as Moscow’s junior partner.
Two visions now compete around the Caspian: one driven by geopolitical necessity, the other by the global green transition. How Iran navigates between them will determine whether this bridge becomes a lifeline—or another bind.
Iran’s water industry officials warned on Saturday that rationing in Tehran began far too late, as the capital’s water situation deteriorates rapidly amid one of its driest periods in nearly fifty years.
The city’s water resources are in exponential decline, Reza Haji-Karim, head of Iran’s Water Industry Federation, told the website Didban Iran.
“Water rationing should have started much earlier. Right now, 62 percent of Tehran’s water comes from underground sources, and the level of these aquifers has dropped sharply.”
The crisis, he said, is the result of years of neglecting scientific warnings about groundwater depletion and climate change.
“The only way to save Tehran is through a chain of measures – from wastewater recycling and consumption reform to cutting agricultural water use,” he added.
Unannounced rationing begins
Residents of Tehran have reported repeated overnight water cuts in several districts in recent days. The Tehran Water and Wastewater Company said the outages are intended to refill storage tanks and prevent the city’s distribution network from collapsing.
Local media outlets reported that nightly rationing has already started in parts of the capital and now continues until early morning hours.
The government may be forced to reduce water pressure to almost zero at night when demand is low, Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi said Saturday, urging households to install storage tanks.
"Pipeline infrastructure in our country is more than 100 years old; the pipes have become worn out, and some of them were also damaged during the 12-day war" with Israel in June, the minister said.
Presidential warning and vanishing reserves
President Masoud Pezeshkian warned on Thursday that if rainfall does not resume by the end of autumn, Tehran will face water rationing, adding, “If it still doesn’t rain, we will have no water and will have to evacuate the city.”
The Tehran Regional Water Company has said that the capital’s five major dams are now only 11 percent full.
Ali Shariat, secretary-general of the Water Industry Federation, blamed the deepening crisis on “mismanagement and fragmented decisions in agriculture and industry.”
“My honest advice to the public is to take the president’s words very seriously. He has told the truth – bitter but undeniable,” he added.
“Continued inaction may lead to forced migration from Tehran,” Shariat added.
Dams near collapse
A video posted on social media on Thursday showed the dry bed of the Latian Dam near Tehran, whose manager said only half of its remaining 10 percent capacity can be used. Officials in neighboring Alborz province reported that the Karaj Dam is now more than 90 percent empty, with only seven percent of its reservoir remaining.
Tehran, home to nearly nine million people, depends on five dams – all reporting sharp declines.
The Laar and Mamloo reservoirs are at 1% and 7% capacity respectively, while only Taleghan remains above one-third.
This comes as the meteorological organization forecasts no significant rainfall for the rest of November.
Tehran is experiencing one of the driest periods in the past 50 years, according to the energy ministry. If current trends persist, officials warn, the city may run out of drinkable water within weeks.
Ali Moridi, head of the Water, Wastewater and Environmental Engineering Department at Shahid Abbaspour University of Water and Power Industry, said Iran’s water emergency stemmed not only from its arid climate but from a chronic disconnect between scientists, industry, and government agencies.
“If the current situation continues, it is not unlikely that Iran’s central plateau will become depopulated,” Moridi told reporters at a university briefing.
Moridi cited research linking groundwater depletion and soil salinity to rural migration in southern provinces such as Fars, where vanishing wells have pushed villagers toward cities, worsening urban sprawl and social pressures.
“Many rural communities with high migration rates were directly affected by falling groundwater levels and the salinization of drinking water,” he said.
He urged stronger cooperation between academia and policymakers and showcased a new university-led “biochar” project that converts agricultural waste into a soil additive capable of reducing water use in farming – a sector that consumes over 80 percent of Iran’s water.
“The project must move from the lab to the field,” he said. “Reducing agricultural water use is vital if Iran is to survive this crisis.”
Nationwide emergency
Moridi’s comments come as Tehran faces unannounced nightly water cuts, with reservoirs at record lows and drought conditions worsening across 20 provinces.
The Karaj Dam, one of the capital’s main suppliers, has dropped to less than 10 percent of capacity, officials said this week.
Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi said on Saturday that some of the city’s pipeline infrastructure was “over 100 years old and severely damaged,” forcing the government to cut nighttime supply to prevent network collapse.
President Masoud Pezeshkian warned earlier this week that Tehran could face mass evacuation if the drought persists through winter. “If it doesn’t rain, we will have no water,” he said.
Meteorologists say the country has entered one of its driest 50-year periods, with rainfall down more than 85 percent compared with last year.
The National Drought Crisis Center has classified the situation as “severe,” warning that no significant rain is forecast for at least ten days.