78 Iranian Prisoners Executed In October
At least 78 prisoners have been executed in Iranian prisons during the past month.
At least 78 prisoners have been executed in Iranian prisons during the past month.
The alarming statistic revealed by Hengaw Human Rights reveals a shocking 65% increase compared to the previous month of September, when 27 executions were recorded.
On average, the death penalty has been administered to five prisoners every two days, further highlighting the severity of the situation.
The majority of the executions, totaling 35 cases, were related to inmates charged with drug-related offenses. This represents a significant portion of the total number of prisoners executed in October.
The statistics also reveal a disturbing pattern in the types of prisoners executed. In October, at least 18 Baluch prisoners, making up 23% of the total number of executed prisoners, had their death sentences carried out. Additionally, four Kurdish prisoners, four Turkish prisoners, and five Afghan nationals were also subjected to the death penalty.
The executions were not evenly distributed across the country. The highest number of cases, 22 in total, took place in Alborz province prisons. Ten executions were carried out in Kerman province, eight in Fars province, six in South Khorasan province, five in Esfahan (Isfahan), and four in Gilan. Other provinces reported the remaining cases.
The majority of prisoners executed in September were convicted on charges related to drug offenses, accounting for 45% of all cases, totaling 35 individuals.
Naser Imani, stated in an interview with Tehran’s Khabar Online website that voters in Iran are likely to favor Ghalibaf to incumbent President Ebrahim Raisi. This shift comes as many traditional conservative politicians around Raisi have distanced themselves from him.
Imani pointed out that the reason for this departure of conservatives from Raisi's camp is due to his appointments of hardliners, including members of the ultraconservative Paydari Party, to key positions in his government. While many conservatives initially supported Raisi during and immediately after the 2021 presidential elections, their opinion changed after observing his government's performance over the past two years.
This dynamic casts more doubt on Raisi's political future, especially considering the revealed rivalry with Ghalibaf. Raisi appears concerned about Ghalibaf's parliament and its efforts to tarnish his image and question his efficiency as Iran's executive body chief.
Imani further noted that hardliners surrounding President Raisi continue to influence appointments within his administration. He said: "I wish Raisi was careful enough not to use radical elements at managerial levels in his government."
However, he appreciated the fact that although Raisi is deeply annoyed by criticism, he has rarely officially filed complaints against his critics.
Imani said: "One of the differences between Iran's reformists and conservatives is that the conservatives bravely criticize their likeminded politicians and governments." He added, "Currently conservatives criticize Raisi's economic, social and cultural policies, but most of their criticisms are directed toward the hardliners he has appointed to key posts in his government."
Speaking about Raisi's own situation in Iran's current political landscape, Imani said the biggest challenge Raisi is currently facing is about whether to take part in the Assembly of Experts election in March 2024 as a candidate from Tehran or Birjand in Khorasan Province.
Raisi's concerns stem from the need for a substantial number of votes in Tehran compared to far fewer votes required in a smaller city like Birjand. His popularity among major clerics and their followers will significantly impact his electability.
The same issue is also valid for former President Hassan Rouhani, another Assembly of Experts member, and his choice about whether to run from Tehran or Semnan. In the previous rounds, both politicians were in good standing to run from the capital but none of them can be sure about their electability after massive anti-government protests in 2022 and 2023 that revealed people's disillusionment regarding Iranian clerics.
Regarding Raisi's political future considering Ghalibaf's rising popularity, it's important to note that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei holds the final say in most matters in Iran. If Khamenei wishes to keep Raisi in power for another term, he can exert his influence over the Guardian Council to ensure they do not endorse Ghalibaf's qualification as a presidential candidate. The Guardian Council has a history of disqualifying notable figures, and Ghalibaf may face a similar fate.
The body that has previously disqualified big shots such former pragmatist President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and former populist President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is not likely to come across any problem to kick out someone like Ghalibaf regardless of his ties with the IRGC and Khamenei's household.
On the other hand, If Ghalibaf is fortunate, Khamenei may not be so keen to keep Raisi in power, particularly because replacing him with Ghalibaf will not be seen as a defeat for Khamenei, but a change of pawns at the right time.
Abdolnaser Hemmati, the former governor of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI), said Monday that the annual growth of the country’s monetary base was about 41 percent in August, which means that the administration of President Ebrahim Raisi has printed about $460 million per month. Iran’s monetary base growth rate was 11 percent in 2011 and it rose to about 30 percent in the following 10 years. Since Raisi took office in 2021, the figure rose about 10 percent to nearly 42.
The monetary base in a country is the total amount of money created by the central bank, including the total currency circulating in the public, and the currency physically held in the vaults of commercial banks, plus the commercial banks' reserves held in the central bank. Inflation rises when the money supply of a country grows more rapidly than the economic output of a country.
Hemmati criticized the administration for its long promised but unrealistic claim of curbing Iran’s soaring inflation rate, asking, “How is it possible to control inflation with this volume of money printing?”
"Governments in Iran have become accustomed to spending more than they earn, which means they manage the country's finances by creating liquidity. In fact, the discrepancies in (the budgets of) the government, banks, and pension funds are all the result of overspending compared to income," he noted.
Hemmati described inflation as "the worst and most destructive form of taxation that halts savings and disrupts investment,” saying, “Although one of the reasons, and not the only reason, for inflation is negative shocks in the foreign currency market, trying to stabilize rial’s exchange rate without turning off the inflation engine results in more corruption, more capital flight, and further shocks in the currency market.”
Kamran Nadri, an economic expert and a university professor, said in an interview with KhabarOnline that the growth in the monetary base will lead to an even higher inflation rate. “Concerns regarding the inflationary effects of increasing the monetary base... are valid, and policymakers should take this matter seriously.”
Nadri added that the Central Bank tries to control the foreign currency market with government-mandated exchange rates, but this method has grave consequences. “For example, due to the volatile economic conditions and the possibility of the return of US maximum pressure sanctions, there is a risk that a shock in the currency market is triggered by even the slightest fluctuation, resulting in an increasing inflation.”
The warnings of accelerating inflation came as the Statistics Center of Iran (SCI) put the household inflation rate at 45.5 percent. According to SCI’s latest report released Monday, inflation was over 50 percent in about 10 provinces of the country, about one-third of the total.
The officials in the Raisi administration defend their economic policies and try to deflect the blame for the high inflation and devaluation of rial to the previous administration. Government spokesperson Ali Bahadori Jahromi said Tuesday that “no one can forget the 60% inflation and other negative economic indices of the administration of Hassan Rouhani.”
In 1978 before the revolution, one US dollar bought 70 rials, compared with around 40,000 in early 2018, and 500,000 now. The United States withdrew from the JCPOA nuclear deal in May 2018 and imposed both oil export and international banking restrictions on Iran, the so-called maximum pressure campaign. That quickly translated into higher inflation and a hasty retreat of the rial. The process has only picked up speed in the past year, as the rial fell from 260,000 to 500,000 per dollar.
Lawmaker Masoud Pezeshkian said Tuesday that problems that endanger the livelihood of people have worsened under the administration of Raisi, who have failed to keep up with his campaign promises. "Mr. Raisi promised to halve the inflation at the beginning of his term, but not only did inflation not decrease by half, but it rose significantly. Purchasing power has significantly declined, and ordinary employees can no longer afford their daily needs," he said.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's Chief of Staff Mohammad Mohammadi Golpayegani confirmed the alarming number of people living in poverty in the country, claiming that people’s livelihood is one of the most pressing issues for Khamenei.
The SCI and the CBI claim that the rate of annual inflation has dropped to 45.5 percent, nearly the same level as a year ago, and the economic growth rate rose to above six percent between April and July. But official figures tend to underreport bad news and cannot be independently verified. One thing which is clear is that food prices have risen much faster than the official inflation rate, in some instances hitting 100-percent in 2022.
Many reports by local media say prices for some food items have also doubled in 2023, since last year. For instance, based on the figures released by the SCI, the price of mutton and beef have risen by 151 and 132 percent respectively this year.
Despite the government’s claims of economic success, a central bank report in September showed that the money supply increased by 45% this year, heralding higher inflation. In his speeches, Raisi boasts about controlling inflation and reducing money printing, and promises that the 50-percent inflation rate will drop to 30 percent by March 2024.
However, the report by the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) indicated that in April 2023 the money supply showed a 45-percent growth over the same time last year. Money in circulation reached a staggering 88,700,000 trillion rials or around $177.4 billion calculated based on the exchange rate of 500,000 rials per dollar. This is the highest level of money in circulation in Iran’s history, fueled by the government’s borrowing from the CBI that inevitably leads to printing money without any foreign currency or gold backing.
The Islamic Republic has always been printing excess money in its 44-year history, but at different tempos. When oil export revenues were high enough to support government expenditures, less money was printed. However, when oil prices declined or Iran was subjected to oil export sanctions, printing increased and rial’s value suffered.
