Water reserves in Iran’s second-largest city drop below 3%
Kardeh Dam, approximately 40 km north of Mashhad in the Razavi Khorasan Province of northeastern Iran.
Water reserves in the northeastern Iranian city of Mashhad, the country’s second-largest city and a major religious center with around four million residents, have dropped below 3% of capacity, an Iranian water official said on Sunday.
Air pollution caused about 58,975 deaths in Iran in the Iranian calendar year starting in March 2024, equivalent to 161 deaths per day and around seven every hour, the country’s deputy health minister said on Sunday.
Alireza Raisi said the deaths were linked to exposure to fine particulate matter smaller than 2.5 microns, known as PM2.5 — tiny airborne particles that can penetrate deep into the lungs and enter the bloodstream.
“Twenty-three percent were due to ischemic heart disease, 21 percent to lung cancer, 17 percent to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 15 percent to stroke, and 13 percent to lower respiratory infections,” he said.
Raisi said the economic damage caused by deaths attributed to air pollution was estimated at about $17.2 billion in 2024.
“These damages are equivalent to $47 million per day," he said.
Raisi said the average daily concentrations of fine particles in the country’s major cities are far higher than the World Health Organization’s permissible limits.
A day earlier, Iran's vice-president for science, technology, and knowledge-based economy Hossein Afshin warned about the consequences of air pollution especially in industrial regions.
Afshin said the central province of Isfahan has the highest number of cancer and multiple sclerosis (MS) patients in the country, adding that the operation of old power plants in the region increases particulate matter and worsens pollution.
“When power plants of this age operate in Isfahan province, the amount of particulate matter in the air also increases,” he said.
Khuzestan province worst hit
Raisi said Ahvaz, a city in southwest Iran, recorded the highest annual average concentration of PM2.5 at 42 micrograms per cubic meter — about eight times the WHO guideline of 5 micrograms per cubic meter — followed by Isfahan, Tehran, and Arak.
In Khuzestan province, air pollution killed 1,624 people over the past year and caused $427 million in health-sector losses, according to Mehrdad Sharifi, deputy for health at Ahvaz Jundishapur University.
He said the air in the cities of Ahvaz, Dasht-e Azadegan, and Hoveyzeh had been healthy for only two days in recent months, adding that 22,000 patients sought hospital treatment in October due to pollution-related illnesses.
Khuzestan’s deputy governor said on Sunday that schools in most cities of the province will remain online until around mid-November, while high schools will continue in person.
Calls to ban old vehicles, invest in cleaner energy, and empower a central environmental authority have so far gone unanswered. Critics warn that without systemic change, major cities including Tehran will continue to suffer both in air quality and human lives.
Iran’s National Water and Wastewater Company on Sunday rejected reports of imposing formal rationing in Tehran but admitted nightly pressure cuts citywide that may fall to zero amid worsening shortages, state media reported.
"No water rationing — the scheduled and announced distribution and supply of water on a rotating basis — has so far been implemented in Tehran or any other city in the country," the Revolutionary Guards-affiliated Fars News reported citing the National Water and Wastewater Company.
Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi on Sunday called the nightly pressure cuts a temporary management tool to stabilize the city’s aging water network and reduce leakage. Similar steps taken during the summer, he said, conserved significant volumes.
The measure, in effect from midnight until early morning, is designed to conserve supplies and reduce network losses, the spokesperson for Iran’s water industry, Issa Bozorgzadeh, said.
“We lower water pressure from midnight until around dawn to reduce urban leakage and allow reservoirs to refill,” he said.
The energy minister said on Saturday “Tehran's water pipeline system is more than 100 years old and worn-out."
"During the 12-day war (with Israel in June), the pipelines also suffered damage, which further added to the deterioration. We are sometimes forced to reduce water pressure to zero on certain nights.”
Residents report repeated disruptions
Households across eastern and northern Tehran have reported recurring water cuts and sharp pressure drops in recent nights, according to IRNA. Residents told the outlet that the disruptions have become routine. Many apartment buildings have installed small pumps and storage tanks to mitigate the problem, while others without such systems face hours-long outages.
Inflow to Tehran’s dams has dropped by 43 percent compared with the previous water year, Behzad Parsa, managing director of the Tehran Regional Water Company, told IRNA. Parsa described the situation as unprecedented in decades, attributing it to a 100-percent decrease in rainfall in Tehran province compared with long-term averages.
Expert links crisis to long-term relocation plans
President Masoud Pezeshkian’s repeated focus on Tehran’s water crisis serves two purposes, Water and environmental expert Mohsen Mousavi-Khansari wrote in a piece on Etemad daily.
“The first is to encourage conservation among citizens and to prompt coordinated planning among agencies responsible for water supply, distribution, and use. The second is to prepare public opinion in Tehran and other major cities on the central plateau for the eventual transfer of part of the population and infrastructure toward Iran’s southern coasts.”
He linked this to Pezeshkian’s proposal to relocate the capital to the Makran region.
A senior Iranian water expert warned on Sunday that the country’s central plateau could be emptied of inhabitants if authorities fail to address the worsening water crisis, as officials in Tehran admit that rationing in the capital began too late to avert shortages.
Ali Moridi, head of the Water, Wastewater and Environmental Engineering Department at Shahid Abbaspour University of Water and Power Industry, said Iran’s water emergency stemmed not only from its arid climate but from a chronic disconnect between scientists, industry, and government agencies.
“If the current situation continues, it is not unlikely that Iran’s central plateau will become depopulated,” Moridi told reporters at a university briefing.
Moridi cited research linking groundwater depletion and soil salinity to rural migration in southern provinces such as Fars, where vanishing wells have pushed villagers toward cities, worsening urban sprawl and social pressures.
“Many rural communities with high migration rates were directly affected by falling groundwater levels and the salinization of drinking water,” he said.
He urged stronger cooperation between academia and policymakers and showcased a new university-led “biochar” project that converts agricultural waste into a soil additive capable of reducing water use in farming – a sector that consumes over 80 percent of Iran’s water.
“The project must move from the lab to the field,” he said. “Reducing agricultural water use is vital if Iran is to survive this crisis.”
Nationwide emergency
Moridi’s comments come as Tehran faces unannounced nightly water cuts, with reservoirs at record lows and drought conditions worsening across 20 provinces.
The Karaj Dam, one of the capital’s main suppliers, has dropped to less than 10 percent of capacity, officials said this week.
Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi said on Saturday that some of the city’s pipeline infrastructure was “over 100 years old and severely damaged,” forcing the government to cut nighttime supply to prevent network collapse.
President Masoud Pezeshkian warned earlier this week that Tehran could face mass evacuation if the drought persists through winter. “If it doesn’t rain, we will have no water,” he said.
Meteorologists say the country has entered one of its driest 50-year periods, with rainfall down more than 85 percent compared with last year.
The National Drought Crisis Center has classified the situation as “severe,” warning that no significant rain is forecast for at least ten days.
Iran’s underground missile and ammunition facilities withstood the 12-day conflict and US strikes thanks to two decades of hardening and design, said Iran’s passive defense chief in an interview with the Story of the War podcast on Saturday.
“Almost all underground and under-mountain missile infrastructure remains intact and has no serious problems,” Gholamreza Jalali said, crediting long-running operational measures and engineering choices.
The priority given to aerospace and missile assets, Jalali said, guided 20 years of planning for missile cities and depots built into mountains and deep underground. Only minor repairable damage occurred at some access points, he added.
Underground networks and nuclear sites
Sensitive nuclear centers, Jalali said, were placed in safe spaces after early threat assessments, adding that he personally proposed the protected design concept years ago.
“The shadow of war was present from the very beginning of our activities, and based on the threat scenarios, it was decided that sensitive nuclear sites should be designed in secure underground locations beneath mountains.”
During the 12-day war and the US attacks on nuclear facilities, added Jalali, some foreign reports highlighted the confrontation between “bunker buster bombs” and Iranian concrete engineering. “It was an oversimplified interpretation of designs."
“Regarding the US claim of destroying nuclear facilities, it must be said that further details remain classified and confidential,” he added.
Banks cyber security not addressed yet
Jalali pointed to cyber-attacks on Iranian banks, saying two major banks shared a core platform with unresolved weaknesses. “For banking security, we designed a regional secure model and obtained funding, but execution rests with the relevant bodies,” he said.
Jalali also addressed the use of foreign messaging platforms by military figures, saying none of Iran’s commanders, living or dead, had ever used WhatsApp, while reports suggested some Hamas leaders had relied on it.
Advanced surveillance and data-analysis systems – spanning artificial intelligence, satellites, and signal tracking – are fully controlled by Israel and the United States, he said, adding that using such platforms exposes communications to monitoring and targeting.
“When we are in confrontation with such adversaries, we must assume total visibility across digital space.”
Former communications minister Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi said in August that Iranian officials with sensitive information on their phones were easy targets for Israeli cyber operations during June's 12-day war, adding that Israel exploited platforms such as WhatsApp to track them.
“In the recent war, those who had information and were of interest to Israel were easy prey for hacking,” Azari Jahromi said, but did not identify those targeted.
Shelters kept confidential
Tehran has multiple shelter options, including metro stations, car parks, and basements, but officials avoided announcing them publicly to prevent panic, he added.
Local authorities received training to guide people in emergencies, while Tehran Municipality was working to upgrade facilities and warning systems for possible use as public shelters, according to him.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian visits the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization in Tehran, Iran, November 2, 2025.
Iran had fully expected attacks on its nuclear facilities and launched a plan to prepare, he added.
Limited drills in Kashan and broader exercises at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan helped minimize risks, Jalali said, adding that chemical storage was cleared and activities scaled back before strikes, and post-attack tests confirmed no radioactive contamination.
Iran’s Central Bank’s latest quarterly report shows capital flight hit a historic peak in the spring of 2025, underscoring the depth of the country’s financial strain.
The report, published on the Bank’s website, puts the capital account balance in the first quarter of the fiscal year (beginning March 21) at around minus $9 billion, the highest outflow ever recorded.
Last year, capital flight totaled about $20.7 billion, triple the figure in 2020. If this year’s pace continues, outflows could reach $36 billion by March 2026, roughly 10 percent of Iran’s GDP.
It remains unclear how much of the current exodus reflects ordinary citizens moving savings abroad versus businessmen or individuals close to power.
Earlier this year, Hossein Samsami, a member of parliament’s Economic Committee, said that from 2018 to mid-2025, $95 billion in non-oil export revenues never returned to Iran.
Declining foreign trade
Central Bank data show around $80 billion in capital flight between 2018 and 2024, suggesting much of the outflow is tied to foreign trade channels. Yet Iran’s economy minister recently insisted that the private sector accounts for only 15 percent of the country’s foreign trade.
That gap points to individuals with government links or ties to quasi-state institutions, including the Revolutionary Guards, as key drivers of tens of billions of dollars leaving the country.
The report also shows a sharp drop in export revenues. Oil income, including crude, petroleum products, and gas, fell by $3 billion in the spring compared to the same period last year, totaling $15 billion. Non-oil exports slipped by another $1 billion to under $11 billion.
Imports declined by about $800 million to $17.2 billion, while the services trade balance turned negative at minus $2.8 billion.
Overall, Iran exported $6 billion more in goods and services than it imported this spring. Yet $9 billion left the country during the same period through capital flight, erasing the surplus on paper.
Worse to come?
The deficit may rise if oil prices or exports drop—as seems to be the case according to most recent information.
Tanker-tracking data from Kpler show Iranian oil offloading at Chinese ports has fallen in recent months to about 1.2 million barrels per day, down from an average of 1.44 million earlier in the year.
Amid the tightening squeeze, officials continue to warn of severe foreign-currency shortages and the Central Bank’s inability to finance imports or investment.
Meysam Zohoorian, a member of parliament’s Economic Committee, reported this week that the Planning and Budget Organization has told lawmakers it is “stuck with three billion dollars” needed for investment in oil fields.
President Masoud Pezeshkian painted an even darker picture, asserting that his administration can hardly source a third of that amount for development projects.
“We are negotiating over one billion dollars to figure out where to find it,” he said.
“The water reserves of Mashhad’s dams have now dropped to below three percent, and although water consumption has somewhat decreased in the cold season, the current situation shows that consumption management is no longer just a recommendation, but an obligation,” managing director of the Mashhad Water and Wastewater Company, said in an interview with the state-affiliated Mehr News Agency.
“Total precipitation in Mashhad county has so far amounted to only 0.4 millimeters, while last year it was around 27 to 28 millimeters,” Hossein Esmaeilian added.
Esmaeilian said the exceptionally low rainfall highlights the worsening state of water resources across northeastern Iran.
Shifting responsibility onto the public
In recent weeks, as the water crisis has worsened, several Iranian officials have blamed the problem on public overconsumption, urging citizens to "pray for rain" and show greater "moral discipline."
Esmaeilian’s remarks came on the same day Iran’s energy minister, Abbas Aliabadi, announced nightly water cuts across the country and urged residents to install home water storage systems.
However, the cost of purchasing and installing home storage systems is beyond the reach of many Iranians, and earlier Iranian media reports said prices for the equipment have risen since the government urged the public to buy them.
Esmaeilian said the top priority now is for residents to save and manage water use to avoid supply disruptions over the next one to two months while hoping for rainfall later in the year.
He added that current water consumption in Mashhad stands at about 8,000 liters per second, of which only between 1,000 and 1,500 liters per second come from the dams.
He said that if residents could reduce their consumption by around 20 percent, it would be possible to manage the situation without water rationing or supply cuts.
Last week, Hassan Hosseini, deputy governor and special governor of Mashhad, said the government is reviewing a water rationing plan and that, if the drought continues, regional rationing will begin before the end of autumn.
Despite repeated warnings from experts over the years, Iran’s water management system has focused on building dams and drilling deep wells instead of investing in and maintaining infrastructure, often blaming the crisis solely on declining rainfall.