A hacked document from the Iranian parliament reveals Tehran anticipated heightened global pressure post-Hamas's October 7 attack on Israel, including wider terrorist designation for the IRGC.
The document is a strategic report by the parliament’s monitoring department titled the Outlook on Regional Developments After the Gaza War, providing a rare glimpse into the Iranian regime's own thinking on the repercussions of the conflict that has engulfed the Middle East since Ocotber. The report was prepared in early December, about the time when Iran-backed regional militant groups intensified attacks on Israeli and US targets to pressure Israel into ceasing its offensive against Hamas.
Uprising till Overthrow, closely affiliated with the Albania-based opposition Mujahideen-e Khalq (MEK) organization, said they breached 600 of the main servers of the parliament, including those of commissions, assistants, the parliament bank, and other servers related to administrative functions, via the legislature's media arm, Khaneh Mellat News Agency.
The 13-page document highlighted that Tehran is aware of the US and Israel's plans to shift their focus to Iran after the Gaza war and is expecting mounting international pressure and further economic sanctions. The document claimed the US and Israel will adopt the “Octopus Doctrine,” which means taking up measures against Tehran instead of confronting its proxy tentacles across the region.
The document, however, predicted a low possibility for any direct confrontation with the US or Israel. But the report was prepared well before the attack by Tehran-funded Iraqi militants on a US base in Jordan in late January, which killed three US servicemen and injured about 40 others. After the attack, the Pentagon said, “We know that Iran is behind it, and we will certainly hold them responsible." The attack, along with Iran’s Houthi rebels’ attacks on Red Sea shipping, intensified the conflict, prompting the US to lead an international military coalition to blow up dozens of targets in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. The possibility of a direct confrontation with Iran was briefly elevated, but the attacks by Iran-backed militia suddenly decreased significantly after the early February flare-up.
The parliament’s report assessed that other countries would increase economic pressures on Iran, including through disrupting Tehran’s rising oil sales, and further European sanctions based on UN Security Council Resolution 2231, the foundation of the 2015 nuclear deal, whose military checks and balances expired in October 2023.
Among the consequences, the report predicted that Washington would push its allies to designate the Revolutionary Guards, the main outfit pulling the strings of most regional militia. There have been numerous calls by US lawmakers on other countries to follow suit and blacklist the IRGC as a terror group. The United States listed the IRGC as a Foreign Terrorist Organization in 2019.
In addition to years-long activism by Iranian dissidents to label the IRGC, the parliaments of the United Kingdom, Canada, and Europe have voted overwhelmingly to designate the group. However, no country has taken the step, each with different justifications, but in general, to keep a diplomatic dialogue open with Tehran.
The report also predicted that Iranian foreign resources, such as the revenues of its exports in foreign banks, can also be a target for the global community to put pressure on Iran. The report also envisioned a unified international coalition against Tehran, which ironically enough is what Iranian dissidents and opposition figures have been urging for a long time.
The report outlined various potential scenarios, exploring possibilities such as ending the Gaza war with the current status quo -- which the report described as a victory for Hamas – or the perpetuation of conflict without decisive outcomes.
“We should view the elections from the national interests’ perspective, not from factional perspectives. If the election [turnout] is weak, the loss will affect everyone,” Ali Khamenei told the youth voting for the first time and the families of martyrs Wednesday while stressing that he was not “accusing anyone”. Amid expectations of very low turnout, Khamenei appeared to be pleading with people to go to the polls on Friday.
Khamenei underscored the link between national power and security, cautioning that perceived weakness could embolden adversaries to threaten Iran's security. “If the enemy feels that you are not capable, [and] the Iranian nation has no power, they will threaten your security in every way,” he said. He urged individuals expressing reluctance to vote, and those dissuading others from doing so, to contemplate the implications, and “think some more.”.
“National security is all that matters. If there is no security, nothing else will remain. The enemy is opposed to our national power. Therefore, they oppose everything that is a manifestation of national power, including elections."
The extensive disqualification of candidates by the Khamenei-appointed Guardian Council, coupled with dire economic conditions and regime crackdowns on protesters, have led many ordinary Iranians to question the legitimacy of elections they perceive as orchestrated and unlikely to bring meaningful change.
Falling short of outrightly boycotting the elections like Iran's imprisoned Nobel Peace Laureate Narges Mohammadi and others, some political parties and groups such as the reformist Etehad-e Mellat (Nation’s Unity) party have refused to endorse any candidates in the simultaneously held elections of the parliament and the Assembly of Experts whose main purpose is choosing Khamenei’s successor.
Former President Hassan Rouhani, despite being disqualified from running in the Assembly of Experts elections, is urging voters to participate, framing it as a form of protest against the current circumstances and a call for reform to improve livelihoods, increase freedom, and enhance national prosperity.
Rouhani stressed the importance of voting for candidates who openly oppose the status quo and advocate for substantive change, acknowledging that the path to desired reforms may be long and challenging.
However, it is not clear which candidates the former president was referring to as almost all critical voices have been barred from competing as candidates.
While Rouhani criticized authorities for failing to foster conditions conducive to broad participation and fair competition, he also cautioned against neglecting the security and integrity of the electoral process.
In the past few days, state-affiliated media affiliated and the spokesman of the Guardian Council, Hadi Tahan-Nazif, have claimed that new polls conducted indicate interest in the elections and prospects for a higher turnout have increased. However, some former officials claim that turnout can be as low as 10 percent, while hardliners, who have already secured their victory claim that up to 70 percent may turn out to vote.
Regime-controlled media refer to polls taken by state agencies including a poll conducted by the state-run Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA) published Wednesday that predicted turnout at national level at 41 and in Tehran and its suburbs at 23.5 percent.
ISPA says 38.5 percent of the 5121 respondents to its recent poll conducted on February 26 and 27 said they would “definitely” take part in the elections against 32.6 percent who were determined not to vote, claiming that the percentage of those who have decided to vote has gone up by 11.1 percent from 27.9 percent in its earlier poll in late October.
This occurs amid the Iranian government's apparent directive to the media not to report on any polling data regarding the expected turnout for the upcoming elections.
Former reformist lawmaker Mahmoud Sadeghi disclosed on Monday that recent polls conducted in Tehran suggest a turnout ranging between 6 to 9 percent. Additionally, he indicated that turnout in provincial capitals and other major Iranian cities might hover around 20 percent, with an overall national turnout forecast of 24 to 27 percent. These predictions were last updated in August during the initial round of candidate registration.
Alternate forecasts peg Tehran's turnout at approximately 15 percent, in contrast to a nationwide forecast of around 30 percent. The 2020 parliamentary elections turnout was also below 50 percent, but closer to 40 percent, which at the time was considered an all-time low.
In previous election cycles, polling agencies routinely published monthly turnout forecasts based on opinion polls. However, this year, the government imposed a ban on publishing such results starting in October. Despite objections from many journalists and politicians, the government's decision remained in effect.
Meanwhile, IRGC-linked Fars News Agency whose reports are usually biased and manipulated in favor of hardliners in the government, put the likely turnout at an exaggerated 71 percent on Tuesday.
In another development, the Iranian state TV reported the details of Fars News Agency's poll, adding that 41.5 percent of those responding to the agency's poll said they will definitely take part in the elections, 29.5 percent said they were still undecided by Tuesday morning, and 29 percent said they will definitely not take part in the elections. However, the TV report quoted Fars as saying that 16.3 percent of those who were still undecided had indicated the likelihood of going to the polls on Friday.
In the meantime, clerics in Iran have been going out of their way to encourage Iranians to vote. An un-named seminarian was quoted as saying that not voting will delay the re-emergence of the Shiites' hidden Imam from the occult. Another cleric, Mohammad Bagher Mohammadi Laini, who is Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's representative in Mazandaran Province said, "If you ask the martyrs, they would suggest that you should definitely take part in the elections."
At the same time, doubts and opposition are also on the rise as the election date nears. Election banners were reportedly set ablaze in Sistan-Baluchestan Province. In Tehran, while a moderate conservative candidate was defending the Iranian Constitutional Law, a student lashed out at him, telling him it was irrelevant to talk about the law at a university where students have been beaten and arrested for defending the same law.
The governor general of Tehran told reporters that during his meetings with the people many asked why they should go to the polls as elections are not likely to change anything in Iran.
Meanwhile, in an article in the centrist daily Ham Mihan, social media researcher Mohammad Raahbari wrote that some popular politicians avoid encouraging others to take part in the elections as they are aware that doing so will endanger their social credibility among some of the elite and their friends at a time when the government's legitimacy is in decline. Rahbari argued that when the people cannot trust the organizers of the election and the candidates alike, naturally, calling on others to take part in the election will harm one's reputation.
