Despite Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s campaign promises to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, Germany has confirmed that Iran has not formally requested the resumption of nuclear negotiations.
Pezeshkian had pledged to engage with Western powers to restore the agreement and lift the crippling sanctions imposed after the US withdrawal from the deal in 2018.
In a statement to Iran International, a German Federal Foreign Office spokesperson said, “The Islamic Republic of Iran has not formally requested the German government to resume JCPOA negotiations.”
On September 15, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced in an interview that Iran will move forward with talks with European nations without waiting for the United States to initiate negotiations. “It is true that some parts of the JCPOA are no longer beneficial for us and some aspects are obsolete, but I believe it remains a framework that can lead to an agreement,” Araghchi added.
Despite these statements indicating a possible willingness to engage, the German government remains cautious, stressing the need for concrete actions from Tehran to address international concerns over its nuclear program.
"We have carefully listened to Iran’s recent announcements and have always stated that Germany remains committed to diplomacy to address the serious international concerns about Iran’s nuclear program."
Germany emphasized that future diplomatic efforts must take into account Iran’s recent nuclear advancements, which have escalated over the past few years. "It is up to Iran to demonstrate by its behavior, in particular by exercising restraint and ending the current escalation, that the stated readiness for a diplomatic solution is genuine and there is real political will to resolve outstanding questions," the spokesperson said.
"Iran’s non-compliance for several years has hollowed out the JCPOA," the German spokesperson continued. They further noted that any new diplomatic effort will need to address the "massive expansion of Iran’s nuclear activities."
Earlier this month, US Ambassador Laura S.H. Holgate told the IAEA Board of Governors that “Iran continues to move further in the wrong direction. Iran continues to expand its nuclear program, to install additional advanced centrifuge cascades, and to produce highly enriched uranium for which it has no credible peaceful purpose.”
Moreover, according to a recent report by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) Iran has increased its activities at two nuclear sites that were key to its early nuclear weapons program two decades ago.
Reviving the JCPOA also requires the green light from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who holds the utmost power in the country. However, in July this year, Khamenei defended a 2020 parliamentary bill that accelerated Iran’s nuclear program in response to foreign pressure. This legislation played a significant role in obstructing efforts to restore the JCPOA, signaling Khamenei’s reluctance to compromise despite international diplomatic efforts, adding another layer of complexity to the potential revival of the nuclear deal.
Since 2022, hundreds of Iranian families have marked the beginning of fall by grieving the loss of their loved ones, who were killed during nationwide anti-state protests.
Each day has become a solemn anniversary of a protester’s death, as the uprising against the state continues to resonate deeply among Iranian society.
These families have remained in mourning, affected by the regime's brutal crackdown on protesters that followed the killing of 22-year-old Mahsa Jina Amini while in the custody of the so-called morality police on September 13, two years ago.
Amini was detained by agents for allegedly violating state-imposed Islamic hijab regulations. Her family has consistently asserted that the head injuries she sustained while in custody led to her death three days later at Kasra Hospital in Tehran. The UN has since held the Iranian state responsible for her death.
On Friday, her father, Amjad Amini, posted a message on Instagram to commemorate his daughter's birthday, which also falls in September. He wrote: "My beautiful, innocent, and dear daughter, my beloved Jina, Mahsa of Iran—today marks the blessed anniversary of your blooming."
Amini expressed his enduring sorrow, writing: “Even after two years, we continue to carry the weight of that bitter day, finding solace only in the fact that your beautiful name is still spoken with grace and purity. Your memory remains forever etched in our hearts and in the hearts of those who love you.”
Human rights organizations estimate that throughout the months-long nationwide protests, at least 551 protesters, including 68 children and 49 women, were killed at the hands of state security forces.
This year, while some families have held memorials in private settings, others have observed the occasion in different ways, as public mourning remains restricted by authorities. For example, the Al-Jawad cemetery in Nowshahr, where several victims of the movement are buried, was sealed off with chains, and public access was restricted starting on Thursday.
As the second anniversary of Nika Shakarami's death, one of the teenage protesters killed amid the anti-state protests, approached on Friday, her family reported that authorities had blocked the routes leading to the cemetery where she was buried, preventing them from visiting her grave.
On Friday, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi marked the second anniversary of Shakarami's murder with a statement on Instagram.
"The killing of 16-year-old Nika Shakarami, like the murder of hundreds of other young people and children, is a stark example of the Islamic Republic's crimes against humanity," Ebadi wrote.
The lawyer and former judge further remarked, "The government is attempting to render the pursuit of justice meaningless."
Leila Mahdavi, the mother of 16-year-old Siavash Mahmoudi, who was killed during the protests, marked the second anniversary of her son's death on Thursday by sharing images from a memorial ceremony held in his honor, seemingly in a private venue, on Instagram, where she firmly stated: "Your killers will face the consequences for what they have done."
Hasti Khazaei, sister of Erfan Khazaei, another victim of the uprising, shared a video on Instagram from a memorial event marking the second anniversary of her brother’s passing.
Accompanying the video, she wrote: “In the name of joy that was taken from us, stolen, denied, killed, and buried. In the name of the wedding attire you never wore, whose absence lingers in our hearts forever. In the name of the love that radiated within you, my dear brother. In the name of your sweet life that was cut short.”
As the anniversary of those killed during the uprising approached, the Islamic Republic has, over the past month, escalated its pressure on grieving families across Iran.
A renewed wave of repression, aimed at civil and political activists as well as the families of the victims, began in September. During this time, dozens of citizens have been arrested, summoned, or subjected to interrogation by security forces.
“The policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran has always been to resist the unilateralism of the United States and generally the Western countries, who pursue their own excessive demands and continue their colonial policies in a new form. This will remain our policy moving forward,” Araghchi was quoted as saying by IRNA, the official government news website.
Araghchi, who was deeply involved in Iran’s nuclear talks with the West a decade ago and in 2021, was appointed foreign minister in the new government of President Masoud Pezeshkian in August. The President, during his election campaign and upon assuming office, referred to a policy of engagement with the West, initially raising hopes that Tehran might be willing to adopt a more pragmatic foreign policy.
Araghchi, condemning attacks against Tehran’s ally and proxy, the Lebanese Hezbollah this week, made it clear that the Iranian delegation will focus on a diplomatic campaign against Jerusalem.
“In this situation, it is natural that the most important topic in our meetings on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, as well as in the sessions held by the Non-Aligned Movement, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, BRICS, ECO, and others, will be…the criminal actions of the Zionist regime, which must be confronted by the international community,” Araghchi stated. He went on to say that “It is natural that the crimes of the Zionist regime, especially those committed in the past few days, will be the main topic of these discussions.”
While the explosion of thousands of Hezbollah communication devices, which killed scores and seriously wounded hundreds of militiamen and commanders, has shocked the world, Tehran has so far refrained from issuing any specific threats against Israel. Additionally, more than 50 days after the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran has not launched a military retaliatory strike, possibly indicating the government's reluctance to escalate the conflict further.
On Saturday, President Pezeshkian declared during a military parade that “Iran's defensive power and deterrence capabilities have grown to such a level that no evil force would even dare to entertain the thought of aggression against the country.” He was speaking during ceremonies on the 44th anniversary of Iraq’s invasion of Iran that led to a bloody and destructive 8-year war between the two countries.
However, his reference to Iran’s deterrence power contrasted with many incidents of bombings and sabotage since mid-2020 targeting Iran’s nuclear program and military and strategic installations, widely believed to have been launched by Israel. The latest incident was Haniyeh’s killing in Tehran while he was a high-level government guest. The incident led to debates even in government-controlled media in Tehran about serious security breaches and veiled accusations against security and intelligence organs.
In a message of condolence to Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah, Araghchi said, "As I arrive in New York to attend the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly, I consider it my Islamic and humanitarian duty to be the resounding voice of justice for the heroic people of Palestine and Lebanon against the criminal and aggressive Zionist regime."
However, Araghchi, echoing other statements by other Iranian officials, indicated a cautious approach to the issue of responding to Israel. “Regarding Lebanon's issues, it is natural that Hezbollah will make its own decisions and respond appropriately. Other matters will be addressed as the situation requires. The assassination of martyr Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran will not go unanswered.”
Ali Nikbakht, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Iran Power Plants Association, reported this summer's electricity shortage at 19 to 20 GW. He warned that if immediate action isn't taken, the deficit could reach 26 GW next year. Similar concerns were echoed by Hamidreza Salehi, Chairman of the Federation of Energy Exports and Associated Industries, and Hassan Ali Taghizadeh, Chairman of the Electricity Syndicate.
All three officials agreed that not only is it unrealistic to resolve the electricity deficit in the short term, but there is little hope of even sustaining the current level of imbalance.
Aging power plants
Nikbakht also emphasized the aging and deterioration of a significant portion of the country's power plant capacity. He pointed out that one major power plant has already halted operations for repairs, stating, “The spare parts for this plant should have been ordered two years ago, but that didn’t happen, exacerbating the electricity shortage.”
He further explained that while the total nominal capacity of Iran's power plants is over 92 GW, much of it is outdated. “Of the 15 GW nominal capacity of steam power plants, about 12 GW are over 30 years old. In the case of gas power plants, 2.7 GW have also exceeded 30 years of age,” he said.
As a result, 80% of steam power plants and 11% of gas power plants are effectively outdated. These low-efficiency thermal plants account for 43% of the country's nominal power plant capacity.
This aging infrastructure, combined with a steep drop in hydropower generation due to drought, has significantly reduced Iran's actual power production. Despite having around 93.3 GW of installed nominal capacity, the country's real power generation is only about 61 GW, meaning that 30% of Iran's power generation capacity is currently offline.
Growing electricity deficit
Iran should have increased its power production by at least 7% annually for over a decade to meet the growing demand. However, the last time this goal was achieved was in 2010. Since then, the country's electricity consumption has grown at twice the rate of its production. As a result, Iran, which had a net export of 8 terawatt-hours of electricity annually until the mid-2010s, is now facing a massive power shortage.
The issue is that Iran now faces electricity deficits year-round, not just during the summer. Since last spring, the Ministry of Energy has stopped releasing its monthly statistics. However, a report obtained by Iran International earlier this summer revealed that even in the final month of spring, the country faced a 5 GW deficit during peak nighttime hours and a 10 GW shortfall during peak daytime hours.
This deficit surged to 20 GW during this summer's peak demand and is projected to reach 26 GW by next summer. To put this into perspective, this deficit is 1.5 times the total electricity generation of Iran’s northern neighbors—Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Turkmenistan—all of whom export electricity to Iran.
With such a vast imbalance between supply and demand, coupled with ongoing annual growth in consumption, it’s unlikely that Iran will resolve this shortage within the next decade, even if it triples its investment in the power sector. The country needs $20 billion in investment just to cover the current electricity deficit, plus at least $4 billion annually to support the 7% growth in power production needed to meet rising demand.
The primary driver behind Iran’s increasing electricity consumption is the addition of about one million new subscribers to the grid each year, with three-quarters being residential consumers and the remainder from industry, agriculture, and commercial sectors.
Moreover, hundreds of millions of dollars are required annually for the maintenance and repair of aging power plants. Nikbakht noted that the annual maintenance cost for each power plant is approximately $3 million.
A critical concern is the government’s growing debt to private power plant owners, which has quadrupled over the past three years. By the beginning of this year, it surpassed 900 trillion rials ($1.5 billion based on the open market exchange rate or $2.1 billion at the official rate). This mounting debt makes it unlikely that the private sector will continue to invest in the power industry.
Government Deflection
Hassan Ali Taghizadeh, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Electricity Syndicate, recently warned, "With the current approach, we will face a 25 GW electricity imbalance next year." He also criticized Iranian authorities for blaming the public for excessive electricity consumption, pointing out that the average household consumption in Iran is not only below the global average but nearly half of that in Europe. "Why accuse people of being wasteful? Don’t blame the public for the electricity imbalance."
Statistics reveal that the average household electricity consumption per capita in Iran is under 1,200 kilowatt-hours, compared to about 1,800 kilowatt-hours in the European Union. In countries like the United States and the Arab Gulf states, consumption is several times higher than in Iran.
Blaming the public becomes even more misplaced when considering that 13% of Iran’s electricity is lost in its outdated transmission and distribution network, which the government has neglected to modernize for two decades. This loss is equivalent to 40% of the country’s household electricity consumption, translating into a staggering $4 to $5 billion annual loss at current regional electricity prices.
Additionally, over the past decade, Iran has failed to convert its low-efficiency steam and gas power plants into combined-cycle plants, which boast a 45% efficiency rate. Currently, combined-cycle plants account for just 39% of Iran’s nominal power generation capacity, while low-efficiency steam and gas plants together still make up 43%.
Meanwhile, the share of nuclear and renewable energy in Iran’s power generation capacity remains just 1% each, with the remainder made up by hydropower plants.
