Russia’s air defense system downed Azerbaijani plane - Reuters
A drone view shows emergency specialists working at the crash site of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane near the city of Aktau, Kazakhstan December 25, 2024.
An Azerbaijan Airlines flight that crashed in Kazakhstan on Wednesday was downed by a Russian air defense system, four sources in Azerbaijan with knowledge of the investigation told Reuters.
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The Embraer passenger jet crashed near the city of Aktau in Kazakhstan on Wednesday, killing 38 people, after diverting from an area of Russia in which Moscow has used air defense systems against Ukrainian drone strikes in recent months.
Iranian Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi has drawn parallels between the oppressive system described in Margaret Atwood’s The Handmaid’s Tale and the systemic control of women in Iranian society.
Mohammadi, who has been imprisoned multiple times for her activism and is currently on a medical furlough, appeared in a video conversation with Atwood, facilitated by TIME magazine on December 18.
In the interview, the Iranian activist turned the spotlight on what she described as gender apartheid in Iran and the restriction of women’s autonomy in ways eerily similar to Atwood’s dystopian Gilead.
Margaret Atwood is a renowned Canadian author, poet, and essayist, celebrated for her profound contributions to contemporary literature. Born on November 18, 1939, in Ottawa, Canada, she is best known for her speculative fiction, including The Handmaid's Tale and its sequel, The Testaments.
Her works often explore themes of power, gender, environmentalism, and the complexities of human relationships, blending literary brilliance with sharp social commentary. Atwood's innovative storytelling and unique perspective have earned her numerous awards, including the Booker Prize, which she has won twice.
Mohammadi recounted how she began reading the novel in Evin Prison but was unable to finish it due to restrictions.
She noted how its themes and imagery have resonated deeply with Iranians, especially during the protests sparked by the Woman, Life, Freedom movement.
“Many young Iranians have been watching the Handmaid’s Tale series, and I have also heard that many performances during Iranian protests abroad have incorporated imagery and symbols from the series in solidarity,” Mohammadi said.
Atwood, speaking from New York, expressed her admiration for the courage of Iranian women in the face of systemic repression.
“I was looking at the Woman, Life, Freedom movement when it was at its height. It was remarkable, and I was amazed that they were getting away with it with all that total repression,” she said.
The Canadian author Margaret Atwood gives a speech after receiving the H.C. Andersen Literature Prize 2024 at the concert hall Odeon in Odense, October 27, 2024.
The Iranian activist also reflected on the broader societal changes driven by the movement, highlighting its transformative impact on Iranian culture.
“I see this change as a positive one specifically regarding the issue of forced hijab,” she said. “The change brought about by the Woman, Life, Freedom movement in Iranian society is remarkable. If we had tried to achieve this through traditional methods, such as religious, political, sociological, or women’s rights discussions, it might have taken far longer to reach this level of progress.”
Mohammadi, a journalist and campaigner against the death penalty, was awarded the 2023 Nobel Peace Prize for her unwavering efforts in promoting women’s rights and her relentless fight against oppression in Iran.
As a prominent voice for freedom, Mohammadi has been a leading figure in advocating for the rights of political prisoners and challenging the Iranian government's systemic injustices, including its crackdowns on protests.
Despite enduring multiple arrests, imprisonment, and harassment, her resilience and dedication have inspired millions worldwide. The Nobel Committee recognized her courage and significant role in empowering women in Iran, particularly during the Woman, Life, Freedom movement, which gained momentum following the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022 in police custody for not having proper hijab.
Use of medication to torture inmates
During the Dec. 18 conversation, Mohammadi also shared details about the inhumane treatment of women in Iranian prisons.
“One of the methods used against these women is transferring them to psychiatric hospitals,” she said. “They are given heavy medications intended for those with severe mental illness and injected with powerful drugs and even subjected to electric shocks.”
Atwood connected these accounts to historical practices under authoritarian systems. “This is very Soviet Union. This hospitalization and medication—they used to do that,” she said. “Who knows, they probably still are. And this kind of treatment was not confined to Iran.”
Mohammadi then emphasized the far-reaching consequences of controlling women in society. “When women lose control over fundamental aspects of their lives, such as their clothing, bodies, and choices through anti-women laws, it paves the way for oppressive regimes to take hold,” she said.
Atwood echoed this concern, observing how such dynamics are not confined to one country. “When I wrote it, I thought perhaps this book will become obsolete,” she said. “But the opposite has happened... This kind of total control of women, particularly their reproduction, that is already happening.”
Both women expressed hope that these stories of oppression will eventually become irrelevant. “The Handmaid’s Tale is an eternal work,” Mohammadi said.
“It continues to offer new insights and warnings in different eras.” Atwood said, “If it remains relevant, then it’s because the situation remains unequal and oppressive to women.”
The world is witnessing a period of significant regional setbacks and retreats for the Islamic Republic. After two decades of massive financial expenditures and international isolation, Tehran’s strongholds and allies are crumbling one by one across the region.
This phase began with the defeats of Hamas and Hezbollah, continued with the weakening of Bashar al-Assad and Iran’s diminishing influence in Syria, and is now advancing as Israel focuses on defeating the Houthis in Yemen.
Evidence suggests that even Iraq’s pro-Tehran Hashd al-Shaabi militia has scaled back its overt support for the Islamic Republic’s agenda, leaving Tehran increasingly isolated in the face of an alliance comprising the US, Israel, and even Europe. Domestically, severe economic challenges and widespread public dissatisfaction have created one of the most difficult periods in the history of the Islamic Republic.
In this context, the overall US policy is combining political, economic, and even military pressure to push the Islamic Republic to the negotiating table. The aim is to reach an agreement stricter than the JCPOA, either halting Iran’s nuclear and missile programs or exposing it to intensified pressure and even potential military action if it refuses to comply.
Despite its structural weaknesses and mounting international pressures, the Islamic Republic’s leadership remains defiant. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei threatens nuclear weaponization and reclaiming Syria, while simultaneously sending signals of willingness to negotiate through diplomats like Mohammad Javad Zarif. However, it appears that the US, Israel, and even Europe are aware of the dangers of a resurgent Islamic Republic and are determined to prevent it from returning to a position of defiance and belligerence.
The chain of setbacks for the Islamic Republic began with Hamas’ attack on Israel in October 2023. Tehran mistakenly believed this assault would inflict an irreparable defeat on Israel.
Misguided analyses by the Islamic Republic’s leaders, particularly Khamenei and IRGC commanders, led to decisions that resulted in a series of defeats.
In response to the attack, Israel acted swiftly, strengthening its regional position within 15 months. This included large-scale military operations against Hamas, destruction of its military bases, and the assassination of senior leaders such as Yahya Sinwar, Saleh al-Arouri, and Ismail Haniyeh. Israel also ignored warnings from the US and the international community to launch an offensive in Gaza, leveraging force to reshape the Middle East.
The second major misstep by the Islamic Republic occurred when it urged Hezbollah to attack Israel’s northern borders in support of Hamas. Initially, Israel issued repeated warnings for Hezbollah to cease its aggression. When these warnings were ignored, Israel launched an operation dubbed New Order, which delivered surprising results. These included the destruction of Hezbollah’s command centers and equipment, as well as the killing of senior leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah. These developments fundamentally altered the region’s dynamics and demonstrated that, like Hamas, Hezbollah lacks the capability to withstand Israel’s extensive military campaigns.
On the international stage, the US and Europe, recognizing the Islamic Republic’s vulnerabilities, are now seeking to capitalize on this opportunity to drive significant changes in Iran’s regional policies. Meanwhile, Israel’s aggressive strategies aim to keep Tehran on the defensive.
Within Iran, widespread public dissatisfaction with the regime’s policies and economic mismanagement has deeply affected the country’s social and political landscape.
Popular protests and civil movements highlight the critical role of the Iranian people in shaping the nation’s future. The convergence of international, regional, and domestic pressures has created a historic opportunity to move beyond the Islamic Republic.
The son of a key figure in Iran's ruling establishment is at the heart of a sanctions-busting secret trade with Russia, in which Iran provides Moscow with weapons in exchange for oil, a report by Bloomberg said.
Hossein Shamkhani, son of ex-security chief Ali Shamkhani, oversees a network of companies central to facilitating weapons shipments across the Caspian Sea to Moscow amid its ongoing war in Ukraine, the report said.
Through his Dubai-based company Crios Shipping LLC, the younger Shamkhani began moving missiles, drone components, and dual-use goods last year, relying on at least two ships.
The Bloomberg report cited information provided by more than a dozen unnamed US, UK, and European officials, along with others familiar with the transactions.
These shipments, according to sources cited by Bloomberg, are part of a barter arrangement in which Moscow pays Tehran with oil cargoes in order to bypass sanctions restricting both nations’ access to international financial systems.
“My understanding is the Shamkhani network ties into the drone contracts for use in Ukraine,” said John Bolton, former US National Security Advisor, now a senior fellow at the Foundation for American Security and Freedom.
Shamkhani’s trading prowess highlights Iran's broader use of a vast network of companies spanning commodities trading and hedge funds.
A family legacy of influence and controversy
Hossein Shamkhani’s ascent in global commerce and politics is intertwined with his father Ali Shamkhani’s legacy. As a long-serving Iranian defense minister and national security advisor, Ali Shamkhani has remained close to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, leveraging his influence even after stepping down from the Supreme National Security Council in 2023.
The Shamkhani family has faced repeated allegations of corruption and abuse of power. Iran International’s investigative journalist Mojtaba Pourmohsen has reported extensively on family members’ involvement in high-profile scandals, including accusations of illicit business dealings, ownership of extravagant properties and bank accounts abroad.
One particularly contentious episode involved their role in the collapse of a building in Khuzestan province in 2022, a tragedy that left dozens dead. The building’s owner, a businessman linked to the family, was found to have violated multiple construction regulations.
Hossein Shamkhani has denied any wrongdoing and rejected claims of involvement in illegal arms shipments or sanction-busting oil trades.
A lawyer representing him told Bloomberg that the allegations are baseless and lack supporting evidence. Similarly, Mohamed Al Hashmi, managing director of Dubai-based Milavous Group Ltd—another firm tied to Shamkhani—dismissed allegations of involvement in Iranian or Russian oil trading.
Complexities of sanctions and enforcement
The cross-Caspian shipments highlight challenges in enforcing Western sanctions. Ships linked to Shamkhani’s network, including the Sea Castle and Sea Anchor, have completed multiple trips between Iranian ports and Russia’s Astrakhan in the past year.
These vessels, though modest in size by global shipping standards, are believed to have been sufficient for transporting weaponry on the short Caspian routes.
Bloomberg’s analysis of ship tracking data suggests these voyages accelerated in 2023, coinciding with Russia’s increased reliance on Iranian arms for its operations in Ukraine.
Shamkhani’s maritime network extends beyond these two vessels. Bloomberg cited sources describing an extensive fleet of tankers and cargo ships controlled through entities such as Oceanlink Maritime DMCC and Koban Shipping LLC.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Ali Shamkhani, the former secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) for almost a decade, during a meeting in Tehran.
While the US Treasury has sanctioned several of these ships and their associated companies, enforcement has been complicated by frequent changes in ownership and the lack of direct links to Shamkhani in official records.
“Sanctions enforcement against these barter networks is a lot harder, particularly when you consider Russia’s historic dominance in the region,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
He emphasized the importance of transparency and international cooperation to expose these networks and curb their activities.
Expanding business empire and diplomatic implications
Beyond shipping, Shamkhani’s network includes a hedge fund operating in financial hubs such as London, Geneva, and Singapore, and a Dubai-based commodities trading firm dealing with Western oil companies.
Despite these connections, he has not been personally sanctioned by the US or European governments. This lack of direct penalties has fueled concerns about loopholes in current sanctions regimes, particularly as entities within Shamkhani’s network continue to conduct significant business with Chinese buyers using yuan transactions, avoiding the US financial system.
Both Iran and Russia have acknowledged their growing military cooperation without detailing specific arms deals.
While their collaboration appears not to inherently violate international law, it exposes participants to potential sanctions.
A State Department spokesperson warned of the broader security implications, saying, “This partnership threatens European security and illustrates how Iran’s destabilizing influence reaches beyond the Middle East and around the world.”
The allegations against Hossein Shamkhani, if substantiated, underscore the resilience of global sanctions evasion networks and the complexities of monitoring illicit trade.
With limited transparency and persistent geopolitical rivalries, success in curtailing Iran's sanctioned trade has eluded the West and its allies.
The pro-Hezbollah Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar reported that Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have reached an agreement with the Iraqi government to halt attacks on Israel to avoid destabilizing the country.
The move reflects concerns about escalating conflicts in the region and fears of Iraqi security being endangered after insurgents took control in neighboring Syria.
Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have launched multiple attacks targeting Israel since the Hamas attack on the Jewish state on October 7, 2023.
Following the assault, these militias began their operations by first targeting US forces in Syria and Iraq, before escalating their actions to include strikes against Israel itself.
Known as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, the groups are a patchwork of Shi'ite militias and factions. The factions joined forces to largely defeat radical Sunni Islamic State in Iraq but continue to exert broad military and political control.
They typically use drones to target Israel, as Iraq does not share a land border with Israel.
A member of the al-Nujaba militia whose name was withheld expressed apprehension that the resurgence of Islamic State in Iraq could mirror or surpass the devastation experienced during the Syrian conflict.
The militia leader told al-Akhbar that the militias decided not to interfere in Syrian affairs and "to follow the situation from a distance, in addition to waiting to understand the orientations of the US President-elect, Donald Trump, and his policy towards the Middle East, specifically Iran."
Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, officially known as the 12th Brigade, is a radical Iraqi Shi'ite paramilitary group primarily active in Iraq and formerly in Ba'athist Syria.
Founded in 2013 by Akram al-Kaabi, the group was established to support Bashar al-Assad's government in Syria against Islamist rebels. It is backed by the Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force, which provides financial support, weapons and training for its members.
The source suggested that a resurgence of Islamic State could upend the relative stability achieved in Iraq.
This follows broader US efforts to curtail the influence of Iranian-aligned forces in Iraq. The Iraqi newspaper Al-Mada mentioned leaked information suggesting a phone conversation between Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani and Ahmad al-Shara', leader of Syrian new rulers, mediated by Turkey.
Concerns about ISIS sleeper cells activating across Iraq were part of the discussions.
Prime Minister al-Sudani confirmed Israeli threats to target positions of Iran-backed groups in Iraq, a claim also echoed in Al-Akhbar.
A member of the Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada group also said that their operations against Israel were closely tied to Lebanese Hezbollah's campaigns and ceased following the ceasefire in Lebanon.
Shia militants in Iraq
The militias' attacks on Israel were "linked to the operations of Lebanese Hezbollah. When the ceasefire was reached in Lebanon, the operations of the Iraqi factions stopped." The spokesman for the Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada militia, Kazem al-Fartousi told the Lebanese daily.
"There are also partners in Iraq who have opinions and reservations about these operations, and they must be listened to."
Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada', officially known as the 14th Brigade, is a radical Iraqi Shiite paramilitary group formed in 2013. Its stated mission is to protect Shi'ite shrines across the globe, preserve Iraqi unity, and put an end to the sectarian conflict. KSS is funded, trained and equipped by the IRGC's Quds Force and Hezbollah.
Prior to these developments, Iran International reported that commanders of the al-Nujaba movement, backed by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), had secretly visited Tehran. This visit underscores ongoing coordination between Iran and its allied militias in Iraq amid evolving regional dynamics.
The reports reflect complex regional calculations, with Iraqi militias seeking to balance their stance based on the domestic power balance and regional military situation.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it had maintained a sustained dialogue with Syrian opposition movements, adding, however, that Tehran is not currently in contact with the forces governing Syria.
Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said that while Iran has actively engaged with opposition groups, it does not maintain direct ties with Syria’s ruling faction, responsible for the overthrow of the decades-long Assad dynasty.
“Our involvement has always been about preventing ISIS's advance and the spread of terrorism to regional countries,” Baghaei said during a press briefing in Tehran on Monday.
“The issue of various terrorist groups operating in Syria has been a major concern since the beginning of developments in Syria 13 years ago,” he said.
Iran has long had a military presence in Syria, as has its armed allies such as Lebanese Hezbollah, designated as a terrorist group by nations such as the UK and US.
Responding to speculation about a message from Syria’s leadership via Turkey, Baghaei said that regional concerns, including Syria, are often addressed during multilateral discussions.
“Our stance is to preserve Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity while ensuring that the Syrian people determine their fate without foreign interference,” he added.
After the storming of the embassy
Baghaei described a coordinated effort involving Iran’s embassies in Damascus and Beirut to evacuate nationals.
“At present, no non-resident Iranian nationals remain in Syria,” he said, adding that Iranians, including military advisors and diplomatic staff, were successfully evacuated during the recent unrest which saw the Iranian embassy ransacked.
Prospects for nuclear negotiations
Turning to nuclear negotiations, Baghaei said Iran is committed to dialogue. “The Islamic Republic of Iran has never shut the door on negotiations. We have always participated in good faith, despite many concerns being unfounded,” he said.
Referencing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Baghaei said that Iran’s cooperation had yielded agreements in the past but criticized the lack of follow-through by other parties.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, was signed in 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 group of countries (the United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, and Germany).
The agreement aimed to ensure the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program by imposing strict limits on its uranium enrichment activities and granting extensive access to international inspectors in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.
Despite its initial success in curbing Iran's nuclear advancements, the deal faced challenges, particularly after the United States unilaterally withdrew in 2018 under the Trump administration and re-imposed sanctions on Iran.
This withdrawal led to a gradual erosion of the agreement, with Iran scaling back its commitments in response and since, escalating its nuclear program beyond international limits.
Efforts to revive the JCPOA have been ongoing, reflecting its significance in promoting regional stability and preventing nuclear proliferation. However, negotiations remain complex, with both sides expressing concerns over compliance and mutual trust.
Baghaei denied reports of a message being sent from US President-elect Donald Trump.
Reporters ask questions during foreign ministry briefing on December 23, 2024 in Tehran.
Iran-Turkey relations and broader goals
Baghaei also highlighted the importance of maintaining strong ties with Turkey, describing it as a significant regional neighbor.
“We are committed to good-neighborly relations with Turkey, which benefit both nations,” he said. While acknowledging occasional differences, Baghaei expressed confidence in ongoing dialogue to resolve disputes.
Recent tensions between Iran and Turkey over Syria have highlighted the complexities of their regional relationship. While both nations have historically cooperated on various issues, their conflicting interests in Syria have created friction as each vies for power.
Iran, a staunch supporter of Syria's government under Bashar al-Assad, has expressed concerns over Turkey's help to the ruling group in Syria which ousted Assad after 13 years.
Turkey, on the other hand, justifies its actions as necessary to combat Kurdish militias, which it considers terrorists.
“The region’s security depends on collective adherence to international obligations and the rejection of foreign interference,” Baghaei added, Syria having played a critical role in Iran's regional foreign policy since the outbreak of Syria's civil war, with multiple bases spread out across Syria and forces in place.