Iranian-American journalist Reza Valizadeh, a former reporter for US-funded Radio Farda, has launched a hunger strike in Evin Prison, protesting what he calls an unjust and rushed legal process that resulted in his 10-year prison sentence.
“Iran is very alone at the moment” said Barkey, an adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington DC.
The push for a resolution to a decades-old insurgency by the Kurdish Workers Party against the Turkish state comes as the Middle East's tectonic plates shift and global alliances are in flux as President Donald Trump cast upends US commitments.
"We have a completely changed strategic situation in the Middle East," said Barkey, "no one at the moment has any dominance in the Middle East and it's up for grabs."
"Iran, for the foreseeable will not be able to do what it used to do in the past," added Barkey.
After 15-months of direct combat and proxy warfare pitting Iran against Israel throughout the region, Tehran has come off worse.
It's main ally Hezbollah in Lebanon took a heavy toll from an Israeli ground invasion and air strikes. Most notably, Iran's oldest ally in Syria's Assad dynasty was toppled by Sunni Islamist rebels closer to Turkey, giving Ankara a new regional ward.
How Turkey benefits from peace with the PKK
The jailed leader of the PKK Abdullah Ocalan called on its members to lay down arms in an address from his island prison near Istanbul on Feb. 27.
That announcement was followed by a ceasefire days later which ended 40 years of armed struggle for a Kurdish homeland.
While President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's rapprochement is largely driven by domestic political considerations to create a new constitution enabling him to run for a third presidential term in 2028, Turkey stands to likely make gains in Northern Iraq, where many PKK fighters are stationed.
Turkey’s gains may be Iran’s losses.
“Both Turkey and Iran would like to influence Iraqi Kurds,” said Barkey.
The Turks and PKK making peace formally will help in those efforts to increase influence.
The relationship between Turkey and Iran Barkey characterized as complex, but one in which there are at least cordial ties and a stable border. Both Islamic nations, however, are revisionist with ideals of grandeur.
Turkey's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidan, said in an interview with Al Jazeera Arabic last month that Iran's foreign policy of relying on militias led to more losses than gains.
Shifting tectonic plates
Recent diplomatic tensions between Tehran and Ankara represents a broader shift in the Middle East.
Add to the mix Turkey reportedly offering to send peacekeepers to Ukraine, contingent on the war ending with Russia – and Israel, striking southern Syria and attempting to increase ties with Syrian Kurds.
Israel says it part of a new policy to demilitarize southern Syria, but the new government led by the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) hardline Islamist group which is close to Turkey has denounced Israel.
“The Israelis also are risking by going too far into trying to punish the Syrians, forcing the Syrians, essentially to look for allies,” said Barkey on Eye for Iran.
One ally that Damascus will not reach out to is Tehran, maintaining its anti-Islamic republic stance.
“That’s it,” said Barkey on there being zero chance that Iran could reestablish itself in Syria, while Ankara enjoys a close relationship with the new HTS leaders.
“The Syrians and HTS blame Iran for propping Assad in power all these years, that Assad would not have succeeded in staying in power this long, or even winning the civil war if it wasn't for Iranian support.”
Reports: The offer of Turkish peacekeepers in Ukraine
Turkey is not signaling support of Ukraine by offering up peacekeepers, said Barkey.
Rather it's a chance for Erdogan to appear relevant on the world stage. Iran, on the other, despite its relationship with Russia, is irrelevant.
“Before Iran was a very useful if not a direct instrument of the Russians but a useful actor on the international scene because it created so many problems for the United States and its allies,” said Barkey.
Barkey questioned Iran's ability to send ballistic missiles to Russia after significant blows by Israel to its stockpile.
Meanwhile, Russia has positioned itself as a mediator between Washington and Tehran over potential nuclear talks.
"No leader has done more for Russia than Trump, so Moscow could pressure Iran," Barkey told Eye for Iran.
"It is quite possible that the Russians will put some pressure on the Iranians, whether it's real or make believe," said Barkey.
The changing alliances, new world order and the stable unpredictability of Trump, may further destabilize the Islamic Republic while Turkey gains the upper hand in the region.
You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran with Henri Barkey, an adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, on YouTube or you can listen on Spotify, Apple, Amazon, Castbox or any major podcast platform.
Valizadeh, who was arrested in September last year after returning to Iran to visit family, was convicted of collaborating with a hostile government—a charge his legal team and international observers have strongly denounced.
In January, an Iranian appeals court upheld his sentence despite his lawyer arguing that the punishment is disproportionate to the alleged crime.
In a message from Evin Prison obtained by Iran International, Valizadeh said his hunger strike is in response to the Iranian judiciary's refusal to review key aspects of his case. He said that until the full scope of issues raised during interrogations and court proceedings are reconsidered, he will continue his protest.
“The public must know that the judicial process for political prisoners in Iran is hasty, lacks thorough examination, and leads to lengthy and unfair sentences,” he wrote.
Valizadeh was initially held in Ward 2A of Evin Prison, a section controlled by the IRGC Intelligence Organization, before being transferred to Ward 209, overseen by the Ministry of Intelligence.
His trial, held under Judge Iman Afshari, was widely criticized for its brevity and lack of due process. He was sentenced to 10 years in prison, two years of internal exile from Tehran and neighboring provinces, and a travel ban.
Currently, he is being held in Ward 8, an area described as an “exile ward” known for its unsanitary and overcrowded conditions. According to sources, lice infestations, lack of medical care, and restricted access to family visits have worsened his situation. Additionally, he has been barred from granting legal representation to his family for handling personal affairs.
Valizadeh’s case has drawn international condemnation, with organizations such as Reporters Without Borders and the Committee to Protect Journalists demanding his immediate release. The US State Department has called his arrest a violation of international law, but Valizadeh has criticized Washington for failing to take effective action beyond issuing statements.
Iran has been accused of hostage diplomacy, detaining foreign and dual nationals under vague security charges to use as leverage in diplomatic negotiations and receiving financial rewards. The European Parliament recently condemned this practice, calling for the release of EU detainees. Rights groups warn that such detentions often lead to prisoner exchanges for Iranians held abroad.
