Iranian officials are sounding alarms over a deepening water crisis that has already affected nearly four dozen major dams, threatened electricity production, and forced Tehran into rolling blackouts.
Somayeh Rafiei, the head of the environment faction in Iran’s Parliament, warned on Tuesday that “the water situation in 44 of the country’s dams is critical,” adding that this has directly impacted hydroelectric power generation, putting spring and summer electricity supply under serious strain.
According to Rafiei, water inflow to dam reservoirs from the beginning of the current hydrological year (which began in September) has dropped by 37% compared to the same period last year. The total volume of water in reservoirs is also down 18% from a year ago and 15% below the five-year average.
“The situation of five dams in Tehran province is especially alarming,” Rafiei said. “Only 24% of their capacity is filled, and upstream snow reserves – a crucial source for replenishment – have declined between 47% and 54% year-on-year.”
She also raised concerns over the Urmia Lake basin in northwestern Iran, where dam fill levels have declined 36% from last year. “We are looking at hard days ahead for Lake Urmia,” she warned.
The crisis is exacerbated by climate change, mismanagement in agriculture, outdated irrigation techniques, and a failure to invest in water recycling or secure regional water diplomacy, Rafiei said.
She painted a dire picture of groundwater depletion, noting that 30 of Iran’s 31 provinces are experiencing land subsidence due to unchecked groundwater extraction. “This is a systemic failure of regulation,” she said.
Rafiei also pointed to environmental degradation, saying that 66% of the country’s wetlands have dried up and become new sources of dust storms.
The hydropower sector is reeling, with over 12,500 megawatts of capacity affected. “As temperatures rise, electricity production becomes increasingly unstable due to the country’s energy imbalance and lack of investment in renewable infrastructure,” she said. “There is no solution right now except widespread compliance with consumption guidelines.”
Rafiei said the situation requires the Ministry of Energy and provincial governors to immediately implement real-time monitoring across all public institutions and government-affiliated companies, including mandatory installation of smart meters and online tracking systems.
“We cannot demand conservation from ordinary citizens while leaving high-consumption government bodies unchecked,” she said.
Blackouts return to Tehran
The capital began scheduled power outages again this week, according to a notice issued by the Tehran Electricity Distribution Company, following unannounced outages in neighboring towns.
The return of outages coincides with a heatwave that has sharply driven up water usage.
Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi confirmed that annual renewable water resources have dropped by 37%, from 103 billion to 66 billion cubic meters – a drastic fall from the historical high of 130 billion.
Speaking at a national meeting with water and wastewater officials, Aliabadi said: “We are facing a global water crisis. The Middle East is at its epicenter, and Iran’s situation is increasingly concerning.”
He warned that rising urban populations in Tehran and other large cities are intensifying pressure on water supplies, and stressed the need for urgent investments in water recycling and desalination technologies.
“In many cities, treated drinking water is still used for irrigating green spaces. That is no longer acceptable,” he said.
Aliabadi cited a 7°C increase in Iran’s average temperature over the past two years – a result of a 4.5°C rise this year on top of 2.5°C last year. This spike has further fueled water consumption, particularly through evaporative coolers.
Meanwhile, many of Iran’s authorized wells have dried up, including those with depths of as much as 150 meters.
“Water is an intergenerational asset, and its management demands strategic decisions,” Aliabadi said.
A hard water year ahead
Deputy Energy Minister Mohammad Javanbakht echoed the warnings, saying: “After years of consecutive droughts, this will be one of the toughest years for Iran’s water sector.”
He cited over 40% drought conditions nationwide, declining reservoir levels, and the drying of key water bodies, including many reservoirs at or below critical thresholds.
“The drinking water situation in cities like Tehran is already difficult, and agricultural restrictions may spark social tensions,” he warned.
While acknowledging some prior attempts at groundwater rebalancing and drought adaptation, Javanbakht admitted the measures had limited impact.
Javanbakht also highlighted the economic strain on the water sector. “There are nearly 5,670 water projects across the country, and securing funds for them in the current economic climate is incredibly challenging,” he said.
He called for tariff reforms, public education, and stronger integration of social and environmental concerns into water infrastructure planning.
Tehran’s water use surges
Recent data from the Tehran Water and Wastewater Company shows a worrying trend with the capital experiencing one of its driest years in recent decades, annual rainfall now below 140 millimeters.
Despite this, water consumption surged past 3.1 million cubic meters per day in early May – largely attributed to the use of swamp coolers, which consume up to 30 liters of water per hour per unit.
Officials have called on citizens to reduce their cooling system usage and improve efficiency, including installing shades and conducting regular maintenance.
Water authorities have threatened punitive measures will follow what they consider to be overuse, warning that persistent heavy users may even face 12-hour service cuts.
As Iran braces for a long, hot summer, officials agree: behavioral change is not optional.
“Without a significant shift in how we consume and manage water, this crisis will only deepen,” Minister Aliabadi warned.
In recent months, authorities have repeatedly cited sizeable increases in gasoline and natural gas production and some officials have even assured the public that this summer’s looming electricity shortfall will be resolved.
But a confidential document from the Oil Ministry obtained by Iran International shows these claims are not only inaccurate, but the country's energy shortages are in fact accelerating.
Iran currently suffers from year-round energy deficits. During peak demand season, electricity and natural gas shortages climb as high as 25%, while the gasoline shortfall reaches 30%.
With energy development projects stagnating, officials have turned to optimistic public messaging, using spurious statistics to suggest improvement that their own confidential data shows does not exist.
In late 2024, Mohammad-Sadegh Azimifar, CEO of the National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company, said the country’s daily gasoline output had increased by 10 million liters, and diesel by 13 million liters over the past year.
However, a confidential internal report from the same company shows base gasoline production at Iranian refineries increased by only 1.5 million liters in late 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. Even for the entire year, the growth was just 3.5% or just 3.76 million liters per day.
Diesel output showed similarly modest growth—just 3% or 3.38 million liters per day for the year. Meanwhile, consumption of both fuels jumped by 7.5% in 2024, or 7 million liters per day, further deepening Iran’s fuel deficit.
Despite the absence of any new refineries in recent years, the government has continued to push over 1.5 million low-efficiency domestically manufactured vehicles into the market annually—adding more strain on fuel demand.
In 2024, Iran’s daily base gasoline production was around 101 million liters, while consumption topped 123 million liters.
Boosting additives
The government’s main strategy for managing this growing gap, according to the Oil Ministry report, has been to dilute refinery-grade gasoline with large volumes of substandard additives.
These additives include various chemical compounds, fuels from petrochemical plants, and the controversial chemical MTBE—a compound banned in many Western countries due to its environmental and health hazards—as well as industrial octane boosters.
While additive use stood at just 5 million liters per day or 6% of total gasoline in 2018, it now exceeds 20 million liters or over 20% of the fuel supply, raising serious concerns about air quality and public health.
The same confidential report also revealed that only one-quarter of gasoline produced in Iranian refineries meets European standards and even within that limited share it is not fully clear whether the fuels truly adhere to required specifications.
Gas production: claims versus reality
The head of South Pars Gas Complex recently announced a 6 billion cubic meter increase in gas fed into the national grid in the last fiscal year, ending on March 20. The South Pars field alone accounts for 73% of Iran’s natural gas supply.
Simultaneously, the CEO of the Iranian Central Oil Fields Company—which provides around 25% of the nation’s gas—said the company boosted production by 10 million cubic meters per day during the autumn and winter, equating to at least 2 billion cubic meters of annual growth.
Based on these statements, Iran should have increased its gas production by at least 8 billion cubic meters last year.
However, international institutions such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF)—of which Iran is a member—have both estimated Iran's gas output growth at only around half that amount.
From 2010 to 2020, Iran enjoyed annual gas production growth rates above 5%. But from 2021 to 2024 the rate has fallen to around 2% on average. The IEA forecasts that in 2025, gas production will rise by just over 1%.
