Israel's leadership had braced for around 5,000 civilian deaths in an all-out war with Iran but has found its foe unable to wreak serious damage, former senior intelligence officer Miri Eisin told Iran International.
Israeli attacks targeted Iran’s foreign ministry, interior ministry and ministry of intelligence along with military targets across the capital Tehran and nationwide. Tehran’s historic bazaar was shut down as merchants evacuated.
US President Trump said it was time for a deal to end the hostilities but suggested letting Israel and Iran keep scrapping.
"Well I hope there's going to be a deal. I think it's time for a deal and we'll see what happens but sometimes they have to fight it out but we're going to see what happens. I think there's a good chance there will be a deal," he told reporters on Sunday.
Israeli attacks since Friday had killed 224 people and wounded 1,277, spokesman for Iran’s health ministry Hossein Kermanpour said on social media.
Four people were killed in the latest Iranian missile attacks on Israel's central region, medic service Magen David Adom said early on Monday local time. Live feeds showed several apparent missile impacts on the northern port city of Haifa as well.
Tehran exodus
Traffic volume also surged at major exit points from Tehran, including the Tehran-North highway, Tehran-Qom route, and Haraz road, police said on Sunday, amid escalating war between Iran and Israel.
Israel has approved a new strike plan designed to prompt a mass civilian exodus from Tehran by targeting sites linked to the Iranian government, the Jewish state's Channel 14 reported Sunday night.
Explosions were also reported near key locations including Niavaran, Kashavarz Boulevard, the vicinity of Azadi Stadium, and the Air Force area (Nirou-Havaei) in eastern Tehran.
More attacks struck around Fatemi Square -- where the Interior Ministry is located --Valiasr Square, and downtown intersections near Alaeddin shopping mall in Jomhouri street.
Iranians from neighborhoods such as Jannatabad, Shush, Saadatabad, Punak, Ekbatan, and Chitgarhave sent Iran International video confirming missile strikes and anti-aircraft fire throughout the capital.
Around the airport area and Mehrabad, drone activity and defensive fire were also reported.
Strikes all across Iran
Beyond Tehran, the nearby city of Karaj faced drone assaults, particularly around the Azimieh area, with residents reporting heavy smoke and continuous anti-aircraft defense activity from the nearby mountains.
In the northwest, officials in Tabriz confirmed drone incursions and defensive responses but denied any explosions.
An Israeli military spokesperson also said on Sunday that they also attacked Isfahan nuclear facility.
Warning of regional escalation
Meanwhile a veteran commander mooted regional conflict and a possible eventual resort to nuclear weapons.
"Iran may be forced to take actions that could destabilize the entire region," Mohsen Rezaei, the IRGC general who commanded Iranian forces during the Iran-Iraq war, told the state TV.
Rezaei, once again seen wearing his military uniform, warned that Iran might have to cross its own red lines.
"For now, we have no plans to move towards nuclear weapons," Rezaei said.
Communications disrupted
Internet services have been disrupted in many Iranian cities, with users reporting severe difficulties accessing social media platforms like Instagram and messaging apps such as WhatsApp.
Videos shared on social media showed simultaneous fires at the Shohran oil depot and the Shahr-e Rey refinery near Tehran, with flames continuing for hours after the initial strikes overnight.
‘We have yet to strike all targets,’ Israeli military says
An Israeli military official said that a long list of Iranian targets remains untouched. Since June 13, the Israeli military has conducted approximately 170 airstrikes, striking over 720 sites across Iran.
Israel also issued a warning on Sunday, urging Tehran residents near weapons production centers to evacuate.
As the strikes continue, sounds of explosions and anti-aircraft gunfire remain frequent across Tehran and other cities.
"If you put aside the human story, in general, life totally exists here, you can go out, there is food in the stores," said Eisin, a senior fellow at the International Institute for counter-terrorism and a retired colonel of the Israeli Defense Forces. Nobody is happy but the stress has not brought panic. That’s amazing in itself.”
Still, Iran’s retaliatory attacks are far heavier than the two last year when Iran first launched direct attacks on Israel, with missile payloads ranging from 500kg to a ton, says Eisin, who served as the first female Deputy Head of the Combat Intelligence Corps.
“We had estimated 5,000 deaths - we expected more barrages - and the risk of Hezbollah and the Houthis joining in simultaneously,” Eisin said, while as of Monday, the government cited just 24 fatalities.
“We do a guesstimate of what they can do based on worst case scenarios and expecting that the system is overwhelmed. You have to have the estimates as the hospital needs to be ready."
“Right now Iran has fired 370 missiles and 30 got through. If it hits urban areas you see the devastation there, but Israel continues to intercept more than 90% with its air defense systems which is amazing,"
The Israeli military on Monday said it had destroyed one third of Iran’s surface-to-surface missile launchers.
Delayed response
Israel’s strategy to create havoc among Iran’s command and control personnel was key to Israel's strategy, she said, a move which takes 12-15 hours to recover from.
In the first wave of attacks on Friday morning, Israel killed the senior leaders of Iran's military and struck at air defenses, missile sites and two nuclear facilities.
“I was expecting an immediate Iranian response and the lack of that is because we took out all that hierarchy and it takes several hours to get that back, hence the response was only from around 9pm and onwards,” she said.
The attacks from Iran have predominantly hit civilian targets, all the 24 deaths so far in heavily populated urban centers. Rescue service Magen David Adom said that it has dealt with a total of 708 casualties as of Monday.
Eisin said that like in Syria, many of Iran’s military and nuclear sites are deep underground and buried in urban areas, meaning that in spite of Israel sending warnings, there will also be a human toll on the Iranian side.
Multiple neighborhoods of Tehran have seen an exodus since Friday after massive strikes across the capital and Iran's health ministry said 224 Iranians have been killed since Friday, and more than 1200 injured - 90% civilians.
Israel's campaign focused on it's nemesis's nuclear program, Eisin said, and the surprise attack aimed to pave the way for Iran to make concessions in a negotiated settlement.
“The end game here is nuclear and the diplomatic channels for that are already working,” she said.
