Iran International
The relationship between Iran and Russia is built on mutual benefits, and the strategic partnership formed in 2022 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine is now influencing Tehran and Moscow's foreign policies in their respective conflicts with Kyiv and Israel.
In this week's episode of Eye for Iran, Greg Brew, a senior analyst on Iran and Energy with the Eurasia Group, speaks to the connection between the two conflicts spanning two continents yet intricately intertwined.
Iran, a country that has had a bitter past with Russia and even experienced occupation at the hands of its powerful neighbor, has involved itself in the Ukraine war by becoming a military enabler for Russia and providing diplomatic support.
With the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin saw Tehran's support as a necessity and the Islamic Republic saw long-term strategic payoffs.
With Russia's isolation from the West and the US and NATO's support for Ukraine, Iran seemed like the likely rogue, anti- US nation to turn to.
"Russia's war in Ukraine and Russia's increasing isolation from the international community, the weight of Western sanctions, US support for Ukraine, and Russia's need for weapons, increased arms for its war in Ukraine has offered Iran a way to increase its leverage, get a closer relationship with Moscow largely through by serving as Russia's sort of new source of armaments," said Brew.
"There of course have been multiple reports of Iran selling drones to Russia assisting Russia in establishing a drone factory. There have been recent reports of Iran potentially selling ballistic missiles to Russia, although these remain somewhat unconfirmed," he added.
How Ukraine-Russia is related to Israel-Iran
But what does this all have to do with the spiraling, unprecedented conflict being seen in the Mideast at present?
In 2022, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brigadier General Pat Ryder said there were Iranian military personnel on the ground in Crimea assisting Russia.
On Monday Andriy Kostin, Ukraine's Prosecutor General, announced that a case has been opened against an IRGC brigadier general, Abbas Mousavi Sharifi Mollasaraei, on suspicion of aiding Russia in war and war crimes against Ukrainian. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson dismissed the claims.
Moscow also receives hundreds of Iranian-made drones that has been used in its war against Ukraine and there are also reports that Iran is sending ballistic missiles to Russia as well.
Iran, which has a clear deficit in its air force and air defense systems is eyeing Russia’s S-400 advanced air defense system, which would offer an upgrade to the S-300 system Iran currently possesses. Iran also has Russian Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets on its wish list. Its air force has been relying on aging American fighter jets bought before the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
There were also reports in August that Russia had transferred Iskander short-range ballistic missile systems and Murmansk-BN electronic warfare systems to Iran, but Iran International has not been able to verify that.
Nevertheless, it is evident that as Iran gains a stronger partnership with Russia and more procurement, the threat only increases to Israel and the United States interests in the Middle East.
Deterrence is part of the strategy, said Brew, who believes Iran's budding relationship with Russia would help it to have more leverage against its foe, Israel.
"From the point of view of Iran, this does affect its confrontation with Israel and the ongoing Middle East crisis that began on October 7th with the Hamas attack against Israel. Iran is conscious that it faces a conventional mismatch, if you like, in terms of military capabilities. Israel and the United States have much more powerful conventional militaries than Iran, so Iran is always looking for sources of additional deterrence, additional support. And one potential source of support is Russia, " said Brew.
"That's how these two conflicts are connected. That's how they form part of Iran's broader foreign policy."
Iran's role in Hamas' Oct 7 attack on Israel in some ways provided a distraction of the atrocities being committed by Russia in Ukraine.
The Islamic Republic's unprecedented and first-ever direct attack on Israel in April involved hundreds of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and about 170 drones, lasting for about 5 hours according to Israel's Defense Forces (IDF).
Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned Iran for that, stating that his country is familiar with "the horror of similar attacks." Ukrainians have suffered from Iran-made Shahed-136 drones, the same model reportedly used on Israel that night.
Ukraine’s sudden counterattack in Russia’s Kursk region has increased pressure on the Kremlin and President Vladimir Putin, but Russia is still making gains in Ukraine, and there appears to be no end to the war much like there appears to be no end to the conflict in the Middle East and the war against Hamas in Gaza.
While the Iran-Russia partnership is not a full alliance, it hangs on a balance of fragility, with neither of their interests always aligning and a troubled history between the two nations.
Just what will unfold in 2025 will in large part depend on what happens in the war in Ukraine and the Mideast, said Brew.
To find out more, and to see how the Houthis and Gulf States fit into the equation, watch the full episode of Eye for Iran featuring Greg Brew on YouTube, or you can listen on Spotify, Apple, Castbox or Amazon.
According to reports from state media, the charges stem from a film critique session where Bani-Etemad, a renowned filmmaker, and her daughter attended without adhering to the mandatory hijab. The judiciary has not officially named the women, but details released by the prosecutor's office leave little doubt about their identities.
This case is the latest in a series of actions by the Iranian government aimed at silencing women who dare to challenge the country’s Islamic dress code. Since the nationwide protests in 2022, spurred by widespread demands for women's rights and personal freedoms, a growing number of Iranian actresses have removed their hijab in public, risking punishment. The government’s response has been predictably harsh, with numerous women facing legal action, arrests, and harassment.
Journalist Masoud Kazemi, commenting on the filing of the case against the two cultural icons, pointedly remarked on X, "Yes, it makes a difference who the president is." His words highlight the reality that the policies and crackdowns have persisted unabated after President Masoud Pezeshkian took office.
During his campaign, Pezeshkian pledged to voters that he would put an end to hijab patrols and the violence inflicted on women for not complying with compulsory hijab regulations.
Shaqayeq Norouzi, an actress and women’s rights activist based in Barcelona, told Iran International that the Iranian government's actions reveal their fear of women’s defiance.
"While nearly a hundred actresses are banned from working, another well-known artist, fully aware of the risks to her safety, takes a bold stand. Such actions are incredibly effective in sustaining hope within the collective psyche of Iranian society, particularly among women. This is precisely why the government responds so quickly and harshly," she said.
The Islamic Republic's campaign against women who resist its repressive laws has seen a surge in recent months. In a similar case, Afsaneh Bayegan, a veteran actress, was recently sentenced to a fine and banned from social media and international travel. The judiciary accused her of "publishing indecent images," a charge often used to enforce moral codes.
The situation took an even darker turn when reports emerged of government forces shooting a young woman named Arezou Badri, over her refusal to comply with hijab laws. The judiciary claimed the incident was unrelated to the hijab, but the context of escalating violence against women tells a different story.
Internationally, the Islamic Republic's actions continue to draw condemnation. On August 25, the United States government expressed deep concern over the incident involving Arezou Badri, emphasizing that Iran's leadership has failed to learn from the death of Mahsa Amini, who died in custody after being detained by the morality police for defying hijab.
The rescue operation involved a rigid inflatable boat from the USS Daniel Inouye and a search and rescue helicopter from USS Theodore Roosevelt, the US CENTCOM announced on Thursday.
Rear Adm. Christopher Alexander, commander of Carrier Strike Group 9, commended the "swift and professional" response of the Navy sailors and aircrew, saying, "Aiding distressed mariners is a mission that our strike group will always stand ready to support."
The Theodore Roosevelt Strike Group has been conducting routine operations in the CENTCOM area of operation to deter Tehran-backed aggression and promote regional stability amid fears of an Iran-led retaliatory attack on Israel.
The rescue of Iranian sailors comes amidst ongoing tensions in the region, with Iran-backed Houthi rebels wreaking havoc on the international shipping in the area since November 2023.
The rebels released a video on Thursday showing them planting explosives aboard the Greek-flagged tanker Sounion, which had been abandoned after multiple attacks last week. The Houthis are seen in the video chanting their slogan: “Death to America; death to Israel; curse the Jews; victory to Islam.”
EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell on Friday warned that the attack by the Houthis against Greek oil tanker MV Sounion could result in an environmental disaster.
Since November last year, the Houthis have launched numerous attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea, following Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's call for Muslim nations to blockade Israel's trade routes amid the Gaza war.
Hossein Shamkhani’s father, Ali Shamkhani, served as the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) for almost a decade until last year, but he remains an advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
The Shamkhanis have been known to Iranians as insiders and Hossein, like the children of many other Iranian officials, has been implicated in several scandals over his diverse portfolio in shipping and international oil trade. However, the Bloomberg report has shed new light on his recent ventures, including his Dubai-based company, Milavous Group Ltd.
Read more: Tehran Media Speculate On Security Chief’s Dismissal
In the heart of Dubai’s corporate skyline, the relatively obscure firm quietly rented an office two years ago. Few had heard of the company, yet it soon emerged as a significant force in global energy markets. At the helm of the operation, according to insiders, is Hossein Shamkhani -- a man known in trading circles as “Hector” or simply H. Despite his low profile and sanctions on Tehran’s oil trade, Shamkhani has become one of the most influential figures in the distribution of Iranian oil worldwide.
Based on interviews with more than a dozen sources familiar with the matter, who requested anonymity to discuss confidential business dealings, Bloomberg has uncovered details about Hossein Shamkhani's activities that suggest a complex, sprawling web of interconnected businesses are pushing vast quantities of Iranian and Russian oil into the market.
“People familiar with Shamkhani’s empire said he effectively oversees an intertwined web of companies, with Milavous operating as one of the parent firms. Business ownership, shareholding and control information are easy to obscure, and other executives have been formally registered as the owners and managers, the people said.”
His influence is so pervasive that the companies he oversees have a substantial global footprint, even though many in the industry remain oblivious to his true identity and the source of the crude they are trading.
Milavous, through its subsidiaries, engages in the blending and rebranding of crude oil and various petroleum products from Iran and Russia in third-party jurisdictions, such as the UAE port city of Fujairah. Additionally, it handles oil from countries that are not subject to sanctions. Such methods can obscure the origins of the oil and fuel, making it difficult for clients trying to determine its provenance, Bloomberg cited Matthew Levitt, a former counterterrorism official at the Treasury Department and FBI.
Milavous and other companies within Shamkhani’s network reportedly supply oil to the industry’s giants, including China’s Sinopec, Chevron in the US, and BP in the UK. While these corporations maintain they comply with all laws and sanctions, their connections to Shamkhani’s network highlight the opaque world of policing global oil trade.
According to Bloomberg sources, Milavous has generated billions of dollars in sales with its turnover in 2022 amounting to some $15 billion.
Unlike his father, Hossein Shamkhani has not been listed as a sanctions violator. Additionally, the UAE has not banned companies from trading crude oil from Iran or Russia. Entities within his network also engage in significant business dealings with Chinese buyers, often conducting transactions in yuan and beyond the purview of American sanctions, Bloomberg sources said.
However, if the US government decides to sanction any UAE-based company involved in violating US regulations, it can add them to its sanctions list. This can be especially problematic for banks facilitating such trades.
Despite not being personally sanctioned, Shamkhani has faced scrutiny from US authorities. Dozens of ships believed to be under his control have been sanctioned by the US Treasury, but their links to him were not publicized. Apparently, the US Treasury Department can sometimes find it more effective to target tankers rather than individuals because of frequent changes in ownership.
Back in 2022, a cargo ship reportedly belonging to the Admiral Shipping Company that Iranian media said is owned by Hossein Shamkhani and his brother Hassan was impounded in one of India’s ports.
Shamkhani and Milavous have repeatedly denied any involvement in illicit activities. In a written statement, Shamkhani categorically rejected claims of a connection to Milavous, asserting that he has no control over any oil companies or trading networks. Mohamed Al Hashmi, the Managing Director of Milavous, likewise dismissed allegations of ties to Shamkhani or involvement in Iranian or Russian oil trading. However, multiple sources suggest that Shamkhani's influence extends far beyond public knowledge. He is believed to have been instrumental in establishing dozens of companies.
Shamkhani's network extends beyond Iran. He spent time studying in Moscow and Beirut before returning to Tehran to earn a Master of Business Administration. His ties to Russia have proven especially valuable as Tehran and Moscow have forged deeper economic and military partnerships in response to Western sanctions.
Hossein Shamkhani's ascent in the oil industry is inextricably linked to his family's legacy. His father has been a towering figure in Iran's military and security establishment for decades and like many of his peers, he is dogged by scandals. Apart from reports about his sons -- Hassan and Hossein -- owning dozens of businesses, there have also been reports about the extravagant lifestyle of his family members in Iran and abroad. Iran International’s investigative journalist Mojtaba Pourmohsen has published several exposés about the family corruption, including his nephews Mo’ud and Naji Shamkhani.
Controversies reached their peak following allegations of extravagant properties and bank accounts held by Shamkhani’s family, including those of his toddler grandson.
In 2022, the Shamkhani family was implicated in the collapse of a building in southwestern Khuzestan province that killed scores of people. The owner of the building, Hossein Abdolbaghi, a well-connected businessman, had broken multiple regulations when constructing the building, having enjoyed the backing of officials including members of the Shamkhani family.
While the elder Shamkhani encouraged his son to pursue a career in the private sector, his connections and influence have undoubtedly played a pivotal role in Hossein's success.
