Iran International
US President Donald Trump's policy on Iran is a muddle lacking any coherent strategy, his former national security advisor John Bolton told Iran International’s Eye for Iran podcast, speaking after Trump pulled his security detail despite an alleged death threat from Tehran.
“This is just typical Trump confusion,” Bolton said. “He doesn't he doesn't have a philosophy. He doesn't do grand strategy. He doesn't pursue policy in the way most people understand those terms. It's a lot of conflicting things that exist simultaneously in his mind.”
On the same day Trump reinstated the so-called maximum pressure campaign of his first term to cut Iran’s oil exports to zero, Trump expressed willingness on Tuesday to negotiate for a "verifiable agreement" to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
During the signing of the sanctions directive, Trump even said he was reluctant to enforce tough measures on Iran.
“This is one that I’m torn about,” he told reporters. “Everybody wants me to sign it. I’ll do that. It’s very tough on Iran.”
Some Iran analysts have viewed Trump’s conflicting statements as part of signature deal making style aimed at keeping adversaries off balance.
“Trump shifts between veiled threats, economic pressure, and conciliation with Iran’s regime. It keeps Tehran on its toes and is part of his style of coercive diplomacy,” wrote Jason Brodsky, the policy director for United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) on X.
Iran's mixed messaging to Trump
But Bolton believes Trump would do anything to appear a master negotiator.
“I think there's a risk with Trump that he'd negotiate anything with anybody,” said Bolton, "The idea that he believes he's the best dealmaker in the world - he wrote a book called The Art of the Deal - is something that should trouble us because he doesn't really understand fully what's at stake here."
Iran’s leadership has seemingly responded to Trump's overtures with mixed messages.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi said on Wednesday that Trump’s demand for a halt on its nuclear ambitions is within reach.
But after Trump floated nuclear talks, Supreme Leader and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei responded with deep skepticism on Friday, saying negotiations with Washington “are not intelligent, wise or honorable."
Iran has still not explained its past secret nuclear activities. A recent report by the New York Times citing unnamed US Intelligence alleges that a secret team of Iran's scientists are exploring faster ways to develop an atomic weapon.
The race to potentially get a nuclear bomb is closer than ever as the country has been ramping up production of fissile material in recent years.
According to an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report from Dec. 6, Iran’s monthly production of uranium enriched to 60 percent. At that rate, Tehran would likely be able to produce the amount of enriched uranium needed for a bomb in less than a week.
The Zeal for the Deal
Serving as Trump’s national security adviser during his first term has given Bolton a window not only into the president's style but the intimate details of Iran's nuclear progress.
Iran cannot be trusted, argued Bolton, pointing to Tehran and North Korea’s alleged cooperation on the nuclear front.
“We know North Korea has cooperated with Tehran on things like the nuclear reactor in Syria that was destroyed by the Israelis in 2007," said Bolton.
"There's been cooperation in the ballistic missile work because they're both using the same Cold War era Soviet Scud missile technology. The risk that there's that there's cooperation that we have not uncovered, I think is something we need to be concerned about.”
While Bolton question's Trump's appetite for a deal, he also feels that Trump would not be fooled by the Iranian establishment's so-called charm offensive.
Iran's Vice President for Strategic Affairs, Javad Zarif, has again sought to promote a softer image of the Islamic Republic while advocating a path to diplomacy.
In a recent interview with NBC news, President Masoud Pezeshkian said he was willing to negotiate with the European Union and United States, while denying allegations that Iran had sought to kill Trump.
“Iran has never attempted to nor does it plan to assassinate anyone,” Pezeshkian told NBC, just months after the US Department of Justice charged an Afghan national they say was tasked by Iran to kill Trump with an alleged murder-for-hire plot.
The Islamic Republic's outreach is risky and aims only at relief from US-led sanctions, in Bolton's view.
"I think that's one reason they want to try to get another nuclear agreement in place so that they can get off the sanctions that violate the agreement and proceed to nuclear weapons. The idea, obviously, is to have the best of both worlds," said Bolton.
Trump was not deceived by the Iranians during his first term as president, added Bolton, who says he hopes Trump will again not be swayed by Iranian assurances.
You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran with Ambassador John Bolton on YouTube or listen on any podcast platform like Spotify, Apple, Amazon or Castbox.
