Oil, gas and Iran economic analyst
After the Chinese government banned sanctioned oil tankers from entering Shandong port—China’s largest terminal for Iranian oil—China’s imports of Iranian crude fell by more than half in January.
Findings by Iran International show that while Iran’s oil sales to China dropped sharply last month, the decline in export revenues began months earlier, coinciding with US sanctions on dozens of tankers carrying Iranian crude.
The Biden administration imposed sanctions on dozens of tankers carrying Iranian oil after Iran’s missile attack on Israel in early October last year. While this initially led to a relative decline in Iranian oil offloading at Chinese ports, the real blow came in early January when China, fearing potential US sanctions under Donald Trump's administration, prohibited sanctioned oil tankers from entering Shandong port.
Iran’s only oil customers are small, independent Chinese refineries, known as "teapots," most of which are based in Shandong, where 90% of Iranian oil cargoes is discharged.
Data from Kpler shows that Iran’s oil deliveries to China fell below 850,000 barrels per day in January, compared to over 1.8 million barrels per day in October last year.
Homayoun Falakshahi, a senior analysis at Kpler told Iran International that Iran’s floating oil reserves have also tripled to 35 million barrels during this period. This explains the discrepancy between Iran’s claims of steady shipments and falling deliveries to China.
Most tankers are anchored in the waters off Singapore and Malaysia, while the Islamic Republic is seeking non-sanctioned vessels to transport the shipments to Shandong port.
Oil export revenues collapse, far exceeding decline in sales
Although Iran’s oil deliveries volume to China saw a relative drop in late 2024 and experienced a steep plunge in January, Iranian customs data indicates that the sharp decline in the country’s oil revenues began as early as October last year.
From March to September 2024, customs and government officials regularly reported monthly oil revenue figures. However, they had remained silent in since October until Iran’s Abdolnasser Hemmati, the minister of economic affairs recently referenced oil export revenues briefly in a about the country’s foreign trade.
The latest data published by Iran’s Customs Administration indicated that the country had exported $23 billion worth of oil in the first six months of the current Iranian fiscal year (March 21 to September 21). No further official figures were released until Hemmati, citing customs data, announced that Iran’s oil export revenue had reached $30 billion over the past ten months.
In simple terms, Iran’s monthly oil export revenue has plunged from $3.83 billion in the first half of the fiscal year (March-September), to just $1.75 billion over the past four months.
It remains unclear why Iran’s oil revenues have plummeted far more than the drop in crude sales volume to China. However, it appears that latest sanctions by the Biden administration on dozens of tankers in October 2024 have significantly increased the cost of transporting Iranian oil to China, leading to a severe revenue decline.
Moreover, Iran’s oil exports to Syria have also halted in recent months following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government. However, with a daily export volume of only around 60,000 barrels, this alone cannot explain the halving of Iran’s oil revenues over the past four months.
Since October last year, the Iranian rial has also suffered a sharp devaluation, with the US dollar surging from around 600,000 rials to 900,000 rials in the free market—highlighting a major challenge for the Iranian government in meeting the country’s foreign currency needs.
Russia’s Challenge for Iran
In the final days of the Biden administration, Washington sanctioned over 180 oil tankers carrying Russian crude oil. According to Reuters, this move has caused the cost of chartering non-sanctioned tankers for transporting Russian oil to China to increase 3.5-fold. As a result, some previously non-sanctioned vessels that were involved in smuggling Iranian oil have shifted toward Russia, making it even more difficult for Iran to find non-sanctioned tankers to transport its oil to Chinese ports.
In this regard, TankerTrackers reported on February 13 that a very large crude carrier (VLCC), previously engaged in smuggling Iranian oil, is now en route to China with 1.9 million barrels of Russian crude.
Similarly, Kpler has confirmed that several large tankers that previously operated for Iran are now serving Russia.
Meanwhile, Russia’s floating oil storage has surpassed 88 million barrels, and it appears that the country’s logistical challenges won’t be resolved anytime soon.
The shipment of 1,000 tons of sodium perchlorate was transported from China aboard the Golbon, which departed from Taicang port on January 21. The second vessel, the Jairan, has yet to depart, according to ship tracking data and intelligence sources cited by CNN.
Iran’s missile production infrastructure was severely damaged by Israeli strikes on Oct. 26 2024, which some experts believed would set back its solid propellant production by a year. However, the arrival of this shipment suggests that Iran could be resuming production sooner than anticipated.
Sodium perchlorate is a key precursor for ammonium perchlorate, an essential component in solid rocket propellant used in mid-range ballistic missiles.
Western intelligence sources cited by CNN estimate that the shipment could enable Iran to produce enough solid propellant for up to 260 Kheibar Shekan or 200 Haj Qasem missiles—both capable of reaching targets up to approximately 1,450 kilometers away.
The delivery was purchased for the Self-Sufficiency Jihad Organization (SSJO), a division of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responsible for missile development, according to CNN’s intelligence sources.
The Golbon and Jairan are operated by the US-sanctioned Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL), which Washington and London accuse of facilitating military-related transfers for Tehran.
Iran, lacking an effective air force, has heavily relied on developing short- and medium-range missiles, including a variety of ballistic delivery systems.
The United States and its European allies have long pushed for limits on Tehran's missile program, citing concerns that some missiles could eventually carry nuclear warheads.
Last year, Iran launched ballistic missile attacks on Israel twice, prompting the US and allied air defenses to intercept and shoot down most of the projectiles.
The Financial Times first reported on the shipment in January, citing Western security officials who estimated that the 1,000 tons of sodium perchlorate could yield 960 tons of ammonium perchlorate, producing approximately 1,300 tons of solid propellant—enough to power hundreds of mid-range missiles.
This shipment comes as Iran faces growing regional challenges, including the fall of its ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Hezbollah’s setbacks in Lebanon.
