Iran International
The Islamic Republic will not engage in negotiations with "bullying" powers, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said in a speech on Saturday, a day after US President Donald Trump sent him a letter requesting nuclear talks.
Khamenei's official website quoted him as saying, "The insistence of some bullying governments on negotiations is not aimed at resolving issues but rather at asserting dominance and imposing their own demands. The Islamic Republic of Iran will certainly not accept their expectations."
President Trump revealed on Friday that he had sent a letter to Khamenei, offering negotiations while warning of military consequences if talks failed. Speaking to Fox Business Network, Trump said, “There are two ways Iran can be handled: militarily or through a deal. I would prefer to make a deal.”
Many in Iran anticipated Khamenei’s response to President Donald Trump’s letter during his speech at a meeting with top government officials on Saturday afternoon. Although the full text of his speech has not yet been released, but apparently he did not directly address Trump's letter.
Khamenei routinely meets with senior government officials, including the president, every Ramadan. This time, however, the announcement came unusually late on Friday evening Tehran time. This followed Trump’s revelation that he had sent Khamenei a letter offering negotiations on Iran's nuclear program while warning that military intervention was the alternative.
Iran has not officially acknowledged receiving Trump’s letter. On Friday, Tehran’s UN mission in New York stated that Iran had “so far” not received any such correspondence.
Speculation over Russian mediation
Highlighting the mediatory role that Russia is playing between Iran and the US, some Iranian media and pundits have speculated that the letter may have been handed to the Iranian ambassador Kazem Jalali during his meeting with the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov around midday Tehran time on Friday. Tehran and Moscow both said the meeting was to discuss international efforts to resolve Iran's nuclear program and Tehran-Moscow cooperation.
Hardline media predict no response
Trump sent another letter to Khamenei in 2019, after unilaterally withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal. Khamenei refused to accept the letter, delivered by then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and insisted that Trump was untrustworthy.
An editorial in the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) linked Javan newspaper on Saturday dismissed Trump’s latest letter as “a segment of America’s propaganda puzzle”. Referring to Khamenei’s refusal to accept Trump’s 2019 letter, the editorial suggested that Iran would once again ignore Trump’s message. “Based on the Islamic Republic’s polices; one can predict Iran's response to the letter. There will be no reply, assuming the letter is allowed to be delivered,” the article stated.
The ultra-hardliner Kayhan newspaper similarly referenced the 2019 incident and Khamenei’s rejection of the idea of negotiations with the United States in a speech in February. In its editorial on Saturday, Kayhan argued that Trump’s primary goals was to improve his own image and shift blame for lack of diplomacy onto Iran.
Backchannel diplomacy
Iran and the United States typically communicate through backchannels or intermediaries, such as Oman, which has on several occasions facilitated meetings between officials of the two countries or relayed messages.
Former President Barack Obama reportedly sent multiple letters to Khamenei between 2009 and 2015, discussing topics such as diplomacy, the nuclear deal (JCPOA), and potential cooperation against ISIS. However, there are no reports that Khamenei ever responded in writing to any of these letters.
“Iran is very alone at the moment” said Barkey, an adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington DC.
The push for a resolution to a decades-old insurgency by the Kurdish Workers Party against the Turkish state comes as the Middle East's tectonic plates shift and global alliances are in flux as President Donald Trump cast upends US commitments.
"We have a completely changed strategic situation in the Middle East," said Barkey, "no one at the moment has any dominance in the Middle East and it's up for grabs."
"Iran, for the foreseeable will not be able to do what it used to do in the past," added Barkey.
After 15-months of direct combat and proxy warfare pitting Iran against Israel throughout the region, Tehran has come off worse.
It's main ally Hezbollah in Lebanon took a heavy toll from an Israeli ground invasion and air strikes. Most notably, Iran's oldest ally in Syria's Assad dynasty was toppled by Sunni Islamist rebels closer to Turkey, giving Ankara a new regional ward.
How Turkey benefits from peace with the PKK
The jailed leader of the PKK Abdullah Ocalan called on its members to lay down arms in an address from his island prison near Istanbul on Feb. 27.
That announcement was followed by a ceasefire days later which ended 40 years of armed struggle for a Kurdish homeland.
While President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's rapprochement is largely driven by domestic political considerations to create a new constitution enabling him to run for a third presidential term in 2028, Turkey stands to likely make gains in Northern Iraq, where many PKK fighters are stationed.
Turkey’s gains may be Iran’s losses.
“Both Turkey and Iran would like to influence Iraqi Kurds,” said Barkey.
The Turks and PKK making peace formally will help in those efforts to increase influence.
The relationship between Turkey and Iran Barkey characterized as complex, but one in which there are at least cordial ties and a stable border. Both Islamic nations, however, are revisionist with ideals of grandeur.
Turkey's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidan, said in an interview with Al Jazeera Arabic last month that Iran's foreign policy of relying on militias led to more losses than gains.
Shifting tectonic plates
Recent diplomatic tensions between Tehran and Ankara represents a broader shift in the Middle East.
Add to the mix Turkey reportedly offering to send peacekeepers to Ukraine, contingent on the war ending with Russia – and Israel, striking southern Syria and attempting to increase ties with Syrian Kurds.
Israel says it part of a new policy to demilitarize southern Syria, but the new government led by the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) hardline Islamist group which is close to Turkey has denounced Israel.
“The Israelis also are risking by going too far into trying to punish the Syrians, forcing the Syrians, essentially to look for allies,” said Barkey on Eye for Iran.
One ally that Damascus will not reach out to is Tehran, maintaining its anti-Islamic republic stance.
“That’s it,” said Barkey on there being zero chance that Iran could reestablish itself in Syria, while Ankara enjoys a close relationship with the new HTS leaders.
“The Syrians and HTS blame Iran for propping Assad in power all these years, that Assad would not have succeeded in staying in power this long, or even winning the civil war if it wasn't for Iranian support.”
Reports: The offer of Turkish peacekeepers in Ukraine
Turkey is not signaling support of Ukraine by offering up peacekeepers, said Barkey.
Rather it's a chance for Erdogan to appear relevant on the world stage. Iran, on the other, despite its relationship with Russia, is irrelevant.
“Before Iran was a very useful if not a direct instrument of the Russians but a useful actor on the international scene because it created so many problems for the United States and its allies,” said Barkey.
Barkey questioned Iran's ability to send ballistic missiles to Russia after significant blows by Israel to its stockpile.
Meanwhile, Russia has positioned itself as a mediator between Washington and Tehran over potential nuclear talks.
"No leader has done more for Russia than Trump, so Moscow could pressure Iran," Barkey told Eye for Iran.
"It is quite possible that the Russians will put some pressure on the Iranians, whether it's real or make believe," said Barkey.
The changing alliances, new world order and the stable unpredictability of Trump, may further destabilize the Islamic Republic while Turkey gains the upper hand in the region.
You can watch the full episode of Eye for Iran with Henri Barkey, an adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, on YouTube or you can listen on Spotify, Apple, Amazon, Castbox or any major podcast platform.
