Iran International
An Israeli security expert, who served for 15 years as an intelligence officer in the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), told Iran International that the war between Israel and Hamas is actually a war between Iran and Western values.
“I truly believe that the ayatollahs of Iran are promoting a campaign which is a threat not only to Israel. It's not just Israel's problem, it's a global threat,” said Sarit Zehavi.
While the world is familiar with ISIS and Al Qaeda as a radical form of Sunni Islam, what is lesser known is the Iranian ayatollahs – not the Iranian people – as a representation of radical Shiite Islam, according to Zehavi. She believes Iran wants to distribute its Islamic Revolution values around the world.
The Iranian regime, for example, has been militarily and diplomatically supporting Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. The alliance between Iran, Russia and China, forming to counter Western sanctions, is another threat to the economic and political basis of existing Western systems. Iran’s challenge to the West has only intensified with its controversial nuclear program. During this year's Iranian new year speech, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said the US will have no choice but to leave the Middle East.
The launch of October 7 with Iran as the so-called ‘boss’ of Hamas, as Zehavi puts it, was just the beginning.
“It’s under the same boss: the ayatollahs of Iran that planned this campaign and created the militias, the proxy militias in all over the region that will enable it to carry out the campaign,” said Zehavi.
Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles towards Israel on April 13, nearly two weeks after a suspected Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria that killed seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) members, including a very senior IRGC commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi - in his office adjacent to the Iranian embassy in Damascus.
Israel, along with the U.S. and its Arab neighbours intercepted 99 percent of the drones and missiles headed its way.
“This is a very interesting incident because Iran's main goal is to keep the conflict outside of Iran itself and use the proxy militia. I think that the fact that we don't understand completely why they decided to interfere by themselves, but it definitely can indicate the self-confidence of the ayatollahs of Iran that no one will put them at risk,” said Zehavi. ‘
Lieutenant Colonel Sarit Zehavi is the founder of the Alma Centre, which monitors and disseminates information about Israel's security challenges in the North to people outside of Israel. She briefs Washington officials, foreign delegations and policy makers from around the world.
Zehavi is living near the border with Lebanon where Iran-backed Hezbollah militants have increased their presence this past year. She said Hezbollah is so close they can see right into the homes of Israeli residents. Zehavi said she saw Hezbollah's outposts, towers and militants right at Israel's northern border line while out for a walk recently.
Zehavi said that October 7 was 'step one' in an execution by Iran to unify fronts to achieve its “goals to distribute the Islamic Revolution values all over the world and to eliminate the state of Israel.”
“What we experienced in the first seven months is the execution of the Iranian plan under the name unification of fronts. The Iranians wanted to create a multi-front campaign against the State of Israel and the Western presence here. It started from Hamas. We have Hezbollah launching missiles and drones as we speak,” said Zehavi.
Experts like Zehavi said Iran supports Hamas with $1 billion a year. The Islamic Republic also supports Palestinian Islamic Jihad with tens of millions and is providing Hezbollah with 70 per cent of its budget - and its ideology.
She refers to 'step two' as missile attacks from Hezbollah into Israel, Iran-backed Houthis attacking ships in the crucial shipping channel of the Bad al Mandab in Yemen, and attacks by Iranian-backed militia against U.S. military forces in Syria and Iraq.
As for a 'step three,' Zehavi said that based on statements from the Islamic Republic of Iran and Hezbollah, she believes Iran and its proxies will join a full-scale war if the fighting in Gaza reaches new levels.
She said Northerners in Israel are expecting a Hamas-style attack in the region. Zehavi said more than a decade ago, Hezbollah published its offensive plan for an attack on Israel - and she described its similarity to what Hamas did to southern Israel as “astonishing.”
“They [Hezbollah] continue to say in Arabic to their own people that they have plans to execute the offensive plan to occupy the Galilee, which is where I live, and many others here in Israel,” said Zehavi.
In an interview with Iran International near the Israel- Lebanon border, Zehavi said what has transpired between Iran and Israel is not just an escalation of tensions, but is rather - war.
“It's war. 60,000 Israelis don't know when they will be able to go back to their homes. You cannot tell them it's tensions,” said Zehavi.
In the wake of Raisi's death, the recently elected sixth Assembly of Experts for Leadership convened as scheduled on May 21.
The Assembly of Experts is the only constitutional body in Iran endowed with the authority to appoint and dismiss the Supreme Leader. Each term spans eight years, and given that Khamenei is 85 years old, it is highly probable that this assembly will be tasked with selecting his successor.
The body consists of 88 members, all Islamic scholars. President Ebrahim Raisi and Ali Al-Hashem, elected members of the sixth term, were both killed in a helicopter crash, resulting in two vacancies.
The Assembly of Experts operates like an enigmatic vault. Before 1989, its sessions were completely shrouded in secrecy. However, under Khamenei's leadership, detailed minutes from these sessions have been classified as either confidential or highly confidential.
The most important components of the structure of the Assembly of Experts are the Board of Directors, the Investigation Committee responsible for overseeing the Leader, and the Committee of Article 107 and 109 of the Constitution, tasked with determining the next leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In practice, the Investigation Committee has never challenged the Supreme Leader.
With no strong rivals, Raisi was in a prime position to become the president of the Assembly of Experts, making his future leadership a distinct possibility.
Raisi and Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader's own son, were frequently regarded as the top candidates to succeed Khamenei.
Speculations Around Raisi's Sudden Death
Although not prominently, there have been some speculations surrounding the sudden death of Raisi.
Some argue that he may have been assassinated to clear the path for Khamenei's son to ascend to leadership. This argument aligns with the pattern of candidate disqualifications observed during Khamenei's tenure as Supreme Leader.
The trend of increasing disqualifications of candidates for the Assembly of Experts has been noticeable since Khamenei assumed leadership in 1989.
The impact of disqualifications has also affected high-ranking officials of the Islamic Republic. Notable individuals whose eligibility to participate in the Assembly, which selects the next leader, was rejected include Hassan Rouhani, the former president and ex-member of the same Assembly, and Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic.
Until 1989, the eligibility of candidates for the Assembly of Experts elections was determined by senior Shia clerics.
After a revision of the Assembly's internal regulations during Khamenei's leadership, the authority to approve candidates became the exclusive domain of the Guardian Council. This 12-member body consists of six members directly appointed by the Supreme Leader and six selected by the head of the judiciary, who is also appointed by the Supreme Leader.
The revision exemplifies Khamenei's perpetual cycle of control in the so-called elections of the Islamic Republic.
Minimal Competition for Assembly's 88 Seats
These disqualifications have turned the Assembly of Experts elections into sham exercises.
In the most recent round of elections held in March, 144 candidates competed for 88 seats in the Assembly of Experts. On average, there were approximately 1.6 candidates contesting each seat. This indicates that many seats had only one or very few candidates running for them.
In essence, across all rounds of the Assembly of Experts elections, there has never been genuine competition between even two candidates. It is fair then, to say that these elections are the least competitive within the Islamic Republic.
Next chapter of the Islamic Republic’s rule
The Assembly of Experts has, in its history, elected a Supreme Leader only once. Following the death of Ruhollah Khomeini, Ali Khamenei was chosen as the next Leader of the Islamic Republic in June 1989.
The commencement of the Assembly of Experts for Leadership, which will most likely select the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, began with a message from the current ruler, highlighting the selection of the future leader.
Read by his chief of staff, Khamenei’s message stated that “the selection of the leader according to Islamic criteria is the responsibility of [the] Assembly, which is itself elected and chosen by the people”.
Participation in the Assembly of Experts elections, according to the Islamic Republic's own statistics, has been decreasing. Furthermore, according to the law, the decision made by the Assembly of Experts to appoint the Supreme Leader is more authoritative and final than the majority opinion of the general population.
Now, a new chapter in the era of the Islamic Republic has begun. With the death of Ebrahim Raisi, one of the main contenders to succeed Khamenei, the country’s powerful players will enter a new and likely tense phase of political competition for Iran’s future leadership.
