Iran International
The nuclear issue and the crippling impact of sanctions on the Iranian economy, so far largely avoided by the candidates, appear to be turning into an important part of discussions and debates.
The turning point came Monday when former Foreign Minister Mohammad-Javad Javad Zarif made a bold entrance into the election scene alongside the pro-reform candidate Masoud Pezeshkian with a fiery speech at a televised roundtable discussion.
“The whole of Pezeshkian’s candidacy, even if he is not elected, was worth the few minutes that Zarif spoke to the people on TV. These words were anti-spell to the one-sided slanders of the extremists. The reign of lie will not last,” Mohammadreza Javadi Yeganeh, professor of sociology at Tehran University, tweeted after Zarif’s speech Monday.
Zarif who has always insisted that the 2015 JCPOA agreement with world powers was signed with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s full approval, defended the Rouhani administration and his own performance in crafting the deal and its immediate economic outcome.
He also showed a few graphs to prove the deal and the lifting of sanctions had helped Iran's economic growth in 2016 and 2017 and asserted that hardliners’ ability to sell more oil since 2021, in which they take huge pride, was solely due to US President Joe Biden loosening the sanctions.
Ultra-hardliner Saeed Jalili who is one of the top three contenders to the presidency said Tuesday in response to Zarif’s remarks, “Today I heard that [someone] has said it was Trump [who imposed sanctions on Iran] and that [Joe] Biden had a different approach. Why did you not continue [your talks with him] during the nine months of your time when Biden was [president]?”
In fact, The Rouhani administration did participate in in indirect talks with the United States from April to June 2021, but they did not reach an agreement before the end of his term and the election of hardliner Ebrahim Raisi, who took office in August of that year.
“Biden not only did not remove Trump’s sanctions but also imposed tens of other sanctions,” Jalili added.
“Mr. Zarif's statements yesterday were wrong, and he was unfair. I will answer his insult tomorrow [in televised campaign programs],” ultra-hardliner candidate Alireza Zakani, who many believe is playing a supporting act to Jalili, said Tuesday.
Zarif has thrown all his weight behind Pezeshkian, a former lawmaker and health minister previously little known to many ordinary Iranians, particularly the younger generation, who may potentially cast their ballots for Pezeshkian if swayed to vote rather than boycott the elections.
The former foreign minister accompanied Pezeshkian Tuesday morning at a campaign trip to Isfahan, Iran's third-largest city and delivered a short speech at his campaign meeting in Tehran in the evening of the same day when he urged Iranians to vote for Pezeshkian. “Not voting is voting for the [hardliner] minority,” he said.
So far Pezeshkian has made no indication that he intends to propose Zarif as his foreign minister to the newly elected, hardliner-dominated parliament if he is voted president.
In a meeting on Wednesday with his former deputies and ministers, former President Hassan Rouhani also accused Jalili and the three other hardliner candidates, namely Zakani, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, and Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh, of only believing in “war and confrontation”.
“They say we have no way other than fighting and confronting the world powers and defeating them and that [Iran] will never win in the United Nations and negotiations with big countries,” Rouhani, who was barred from running in the elections of the Expediency Council in March by the Guardian Council, said.
At an economic roundtable discussion Wednesday, conservative candidate Mostafa Pourmohammadi also touched upon the issue of the nuclear deal and sanctions. He said his government would complete the “unfinished” business of the JCPOA, which he describes as "not perfect" while accusing hardliners of sabotaging the talks.
“Pressures and damages [caused by sanctions] are serious and certain imprudent actions have increased the damages,” the conservative Pourmohammadi who insists he will negotiate even with the "bitterest enemy" said.
This lack of engagement is alarming as Iran prepares to elect a new president following the unexpected death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month.
The survey, which involved face-to-face interviews with 4,545 citizens on June 18 and 19, shows just 26.8% of the population watched the televised debate, focusing on the pressing economic issues facing the nation.
Moreover, the ISPA's findings reveal a broader trend of apathy towards election news, with 35% of respondents indicating they do not follow election news at all, and others only minimally engaged.
The disengagement comes amid calls for an election boycott. Many citizens, as well as various political and civil society groups, have expressed discontent with the Islamic Republic's track record on human rights and democratic governance. The pressure for boycotting the election is compounded by the Iranian government's repressive measures against free speech and the dissemination of independent survey results.
Authorities have previously issued threats against those releasing or publishing survey data that portrays the government negatively, warning of legal repercussions and potentially criminal charges.
Participation in elections plummeted in the 2020 parliamentary race when hundreds of regime insiders deemed too moderate were banned from competing. As a result, hardliners swept the majority of seats amid a voter turnout of less than 50%.
The same scenario repeated itself in the 2021 presidential election and the March 2024 parliamentary election, where many serious candidates were disqualified by the 12-member unelected Guardian Council. In both elections, voter turnout was well below 50%. In the current election also, six hand-picked candidates were allowed to compete.
Meanwhile, the government continued to use lethal force against protesters and harsh measures against dissidents. This suppression reflects deeper systemic issues within the Iranian political landscape, as highlighted by prominent Iranian sociopolitical analyst Abbas Abdi. In a recent critique titled "A Point with the Government," Abdi articulated the consequences of the government's policy of uniformity, which he argues has led to a reduction in political participation.
According to Abdi, when participation rates in areas like Tehran drop to around 10% or less, it is a clear sign of a legitimacy crisis within the political system. He noted that while some electoral districts may see higher turnout due to ethnic, tribal, linguistic, or religious factors, the overall low participation is a warning sign and a "trumpet of doom" for Iranian politics under the rule of the current ruling system.
“I'm not saying that participation in Tehran should be 80%, but participation under 50% is a warning sign. When it drops below 10%, it is a siren call and even the trumpet of doom for politics.”
Abdi further argued that the distrust in the government leads to diminished efficiency and a lack of public willingness to engage in the political process. He criticized the current administration for its apparent incompetence in addressing and understanding societal issues, describing it as "idealess, without vision, and disappointing."
The implications of such widespread disaffection are profound. As Abdi points out, the distancing of the people from the government has become so significant that bridging such a gap poses not only a logistical challenge but also an emotional and psychological burden on the populace.
As Iran heads towards its contentious election on June 28, the environment is marked by skepticism and a crisis of legitimacy. The last parliamentary elections in March, which saw a low turnout with just about 8% participation in Tehran during the second round, underscore the growing chasm between the government and its citizens.
Ramezan Sharif emphasized that the IRGC would remain neutral and abstain from supporting or opposing any candidate but while the IRGC officially denies fielding candidates in Iran's upcoming presidential snap elections, the majority of contenders appear to maintain close ties with the organization.
Even when the president is not affiliated with the IRGC, its influence remains profound. Former President Hassan Rouhani famously dubbed the IRGC a "shadow government with guns," lamenting its extensive control over political, military, and economic realms.
He once characterized them as “a government wielding both military might and media dominance, possessing an unrivaled grasp on power, leaving little room for challengers.”
This election cycle underscores the IRGC's pervasive influence, as evidenced by the strong connections of most of the six hand-picked presidential candidates to the organization through personal relationships or their staff affiliations.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf's association with the IRGC dates back to his youth. He officially joined the IRGC at 19 in 1980 and served until 2005.
He has held various high-ranking positions within the IRGC, including serving as deputy commander of the Basij, leading the Khatam Al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters, and commanding the IRGC Air Force.
During Ghalibaf's tenure leading the IRGC Air Force, clashes emerged with the Army over land seizures. Ghalibaf's forces resorted to violence, resulting in the death of an army soldier.
As Speaker of Parliament, Ghalibaf furthered IRGC's economic interests. In one instance, he reportedly replaced the head of the Central Bank to facilitate IRGC financing during Ebrahim Raisi's presidency in 2023.
In a leaked audio recording from February 2022, conversations among senior Revolutionary Guard generals surfaced, shedding light on a significant corruption scandal. The discussions implicated Ghalibaf during his tenure as Tehran's mayor.
The funds at issue were primarily allocated to the Quds Force, the IRGC's clandestine overseas operations unit, which wields huge economic power in Iran. Still, they became entangled in transactions between the municipality and Yas Holding, an IRGC's Cooperatives Foundation subsidiary engaged in services, dealerships, and subcontracting within the housing sector.
Throughout his term, he oversaw the enactment of the Strategic Action Law to Lift Sanctions and Safeguard Iran's National Interests in the parliament. This law compelled aggressive measures to expedite Iran's nuclear program and limit International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) oversight.
In March, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the IRGC's Aerospace Division commander, praised Ghalibaf's pivotal role in establishing IRGC missile sites, hailing him as "revolutionary" and "indefatigable." He emphasized the need for "jihadist managers" like Ghalibaf in the country's economy.
Ghalibaf's potential presidency would mark the first time a former senior career commander of the IRGC assumes the position under Khamenei. His presidency would likely safeguard IRGC interests in the event of Khamenei's passing during his tenure at 85 years old.
Alireza Zakani
Although not a military figure like Ghalibaf, Alireza Zakani is well-known for his role in leading the IRGC’s Student Basij Organization (SBO).
Alireza Zakani has held various prominent positions within the Islamic Republic, including leading the SBO, serving as a member of parliament, presiding over the Parliament’s Research Center, and currently holding the position of mayor of Tehran.
Renowned for his conservative ideology and often referred to as the "revolutionary tank," Zakani is re-entering the presidential race after withdrawing his candidacy in 2021 to endorse Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash last month.
He is subject to UK sanctions due to allegations of serious human rights abuses in Iran.
While not donning a military uniform, Zakani, who served as Ghalibaf’s campaign manager during his unsuccessful presidential bid in 2005, aimed to govern Tehran with military-like tactics, evidenced by his establishment of IRGC and Basij-led camps in the city.
He has also received support from figures like General Esmaeil Kosari, a former IRGC commander and current member of parliament, in controversial decisions like building mosques in parks.
Lotfollah Forouzandeh leads Zakani's election campaign. Forouzandeh is currently Tehran’s municipality deputy for financial affairs. His appointment raised concerns about the misuse of municipal resources for personal political gain.
Forouzandeh held positions such as commander and deputy in the IRGC until 1992; he is also recognized as one of the founders of the Society of Devotees of the Islamic Revolution, a group composed of former Iran-Iraq war commanders who have wielded significant influence in elections since the early 2000s. This group notably contributed to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's rise to power in the Tehran Municipality and the presidency.
Saeed Jalili
Saeed Jalili earned the moniker "a living martyr" following the loss of one of his legs during the Iran-Iraq War while serving in SBO.
Throughout his career, Jalili has held many significant roles, from the Office of the Supreme Leader to Iran's Foreign Ministry and the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC).
These positions include leading Iran’s Foreign Ministry’s Inspection Office, heading the Foreign Ministry’s US Affairs Office, serving as a senior director in Khamenei’s office, deputy foreign minister for European and American Affairs, secretary of the SNSC, and subsequently, the supreme leader’s personal representative on the SNSC.
Jalili, although aligned with the fundamentalist faction, lacks clear organizational ties with the Revolutionary Guards akin to figures like Ghalibaf or Zakani.
A leaked audio revealed that former IRGC Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani was discontent with Jalili's management style. However, IRGC-affiliated media outlets, such as Fars, Tasnim, and Javan, as well as Ofoq TV, have maintained a favorable relationship with Jalili.
Mohsen Mansouri, who is leading Jalili's campaign, has strong ties with the IRGC. As the governor of Tehran province and the head of the province's security council, he appointed IRGC commanders to critical positions. Mansouri also directed resources to the IRGC in his capacity within Jalili's campaign, appointing Rahim Aghdam, a Quds Force commander and associate of Qassem Soleimani, to the team.
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
Mostafa Pourmohammadi, the only cleric approved to run for the presidency in 2024, is notorious among Iranians for his role alongside Raisi on the Death Commission, which sanctioned the execution of thousands of political prisoners in 1988.
He has maintained a positive relationship with the IRGC and even appointed an active IRGC commander to governmental positions.
Pourmohammadi served as a cabinet minister in Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's first administration. One of his initial appointments was Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, then deputy commander of the IRGC, as his deputy.
Pourmohammadi reportedly revealed electoral irregularities to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei without Ahmadinejad’s knowledge, leading to his dismissal as interior minister in 2008.
Subsequently, he stood in defense of the IRGC against Ahmadinejad's criticisms.
In 2011, when Ahmadinejad referred to the IRGC's illicit activities with the term "Smuggler Brothers" and mentioned illegal docks. Mostafa Pourmohammadi, then head of the General Inspection Organization, asserted that no illegal docks existed in the country.
Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi
Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, a trained physician and former member of parliament, served on its presidium and as the first deputy speaker. He ran for the presidency in 2021 but was unsuccessful. Subsequently, Ebrahim Raisi appointed him as vice president and head of the Martyrs and Veterans Affairs Foundation. This Iranian parastatal organization is sanctioned for channeling financial resources to terrorist groups, notably Hezbollah.
As head of the Martyrs and Veterans Affairs Foundation, Ghazizadeh Hashemi naturally maintained business relations with the IRGC’s Quds Force.
Mohammad Reza Mirshamsi, who leads Ghazizadeh Hashemi's election headquarters, is a relatively lesser-known figure with a history of serving as the political deputy at Imam Hossein University, an institution affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards.
Masoud Pezeshkian
Masoud Pezeshkian is the only ‘reformist’ candidate allowed to participate in this election. A heart surgeon by profession, he previously served as the health minister in Mohammad Khatami's administration.
Though he appears to have fewer connections to the Revolutionary Guards than others, he, along with Ghazizadeh Hashemi, wore the IRGC uniform alongside fellow parliamentarians in solidarity with the IRGC a day after then-US President Donald Trump designated the IRGC as a terrorist organization.
In December 2022, during a university lecture, he responded to a student criticizing his choice to wear the IRGC uniform by stating, "Without the IRGC, this country would have been divided, and our work would have ended."
