Iran International
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with ultimate authority over Tehran’s nuclear policy, combined strict oversight with cautious deniability in the lead-up to the 2015 nuclear deal—using a dual strategy to safeguard domestic credibility while retaining international leverage.
Q: How and when did Khamenei approve the 2013 nuclear talks?
On September 17, 2013, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei signaled his approval for nuclear talks with world powers, using a religious analogy in a speech to suggest that "flexibility" is sometimes necessary to achieve victory against adversaries.
Two weeks later, he expressed support for the diplomatic initiative of then-President Hassan Rouhani’s administration in another speech.
Between April and July 2015, as nuclear talks neared their conclusion, Khamenei cautioned military officials against allowing "aliens" to inspect military facilities "under the guise of supervision and inspection." He warned against halting Iran’s defense development or permitting the interrogation of Iranian nuclear scientists. Khamenei also pledged continued backing for the Islamic Republic’s "friends in the region," including the "peoples" of Palestine, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Bahrain, and Lebanon.
Additionally, Khamenei insisted that all sanctions, whether imposed by the United Nations or the United States, must be lifted immediately once a deal was finalized.
Q: What role did Khamenei play in the 2015 nuclear deal?
Khamenei has consistently claimed that he was not directly involved in the details of the nuclear negotiations with world powers, which began in November 2013.
However, officials’ statements suggest that the negotiating team regularly reported to him, followed his instructions, and adhered to the “red lines” he established. A deal, by all accounts, required his ultimate approval.
In July 2013, Khamenei showcased his in-depth knowledge of the negotiations, citing technical terms and specific figures during a speech to government officials.
“Regarding the enrichment capacity, they aim to make the Islamic Republic consent to 10,000 SWU, but they began by demanding a limitation to 500 SWU or 1,000 SWU. 10,000 SWU is produced by the 10,000 old-type centrifuges we had and still have. Our officials say we need 190,000 SWU. This is the country’s definite need,” he said.
SWU (separative work units) refers to the amount of separation achieved in the uranium enrichment process.
Q: Did Khamenei accept responsibility for the 2015 nuclear deal?
Khamenei avoided taking direct responsibility for the nuclear deal, deferring its final approval to the conservative and hardliner-dominated Parliament. He neither explicitly endorsed nor opposed the agreement.
Speaker Ali Larijani expedited the parliamentary vote, reportedly acting on Khamenei’s instructions, and blocked debate on the legislation despite objections from hardliners. The deal passed with 161 lawmakers voting in favor, 59 opposing, and 13 abstaining.Some reports claimed that Khamenei had conveyed his desire for the deal’s approval through Asghar Hejazi, an official in his office. However, the office issued a statement denying such allegations.
Q: When did Khamenei first publicly criticize the 2015 nuclear negotiation team?
After the US withdrew from the nuclear deal – formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – in May 2018, Khamenei described the negotiations as a mistake in an August speech.
He stated that he had permitted the talks because senior officials, likely President Hassan Rouhani and his negotiation team led by Javad Zarif, had insisted on pursuing them.
In the same speech, he accused the negotiators of crossing the “red lines” he had set.
Q: Has Khamenei issued a fatwa prohibiting the development of nuclear weapons?Iran's government has consistently stated that it will not pursue nuclear weapons, citing a fatwa (religious edict) by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei banning all weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear arms.Iranian officials first referenced Khamenei’s fatwa at an IAEA meeting in Vienna in August 2005 and reiterated it at the International Conference on Nuclear Disarmament in April 2010.
According to Khamenei’s official website, Iran’s mission later pledged to submit a translation of the fatwa in several languages to the UN for registration as an official document.
In an October 2019 speech, Khamenei declared that building and maintaining nuclear weapons is "absolutely haram," meaning strictly forbidden under Islamic law. He stated that although Iran had the capability to develop a bomb, it chose not to. He emphasized there is no justification for pursuing a weapon that is religiously prohibited.
However, analysts argue that the so-called fatwa is merely an advisory opinion rather than a binding legal decree. They argue it was intended to mislead the international community about the true intentions of a nuclear program that Tehran insists is peaceful.
Q: Can Khamenei’s ‘nuclear fatwa’ be overturned?
Fatwas are issued by Shia Marja – senior clerics recognized as sources of emulation in Islamic jurisprudence.
Skeptics say that such fatwas are not immutable; they can be revised or revoked based on the “requirements of time and place.” This principle allows rulings to adapt to new circumstances, as shown by historical instances where one Marja or another has altered earlier decisions.
Their accounts align with new data showing that Iran has reached its highest-ever divorce-to-marriage ratio.
Iran’s Open Data Center, which provides public access to government-generated data, reports that from March 20, 2023, to March 20, 2024, there were 2.4 marriages for every divorce recorded.
While there were just 481,000 marriages in that timeframe, reportedly the lowest in 27 years – divorces soared up to 202,000, marking the third-highest divorce count on record.
In the 1980s, the national divorce-to-marriage ratio was under 9 per 100 marriages. Since then, it has quadrupled, now approaching 40 divorces for every 100 marriages.
In light of the Iranian government’s crackdowns on individuals speaking to foreign media, some names have been abbreviated or last names omitted.
Professor K., a sociologist, told Iran International how financial instability has driven unprecedented pressure on marriages in Iran.
“When couples can’t afford rent or constantly fear eviction, the sense of security needed to nurture a relationship vanishes,” he said. “Young families feel trapped between rising inflation and unemployment. It’s tearing them apart.”
Trapped in Tehran's rising cost of living
The challenges faced by young couples are evident in the nation’s capital, where Narges and Ali say they once dreamed of buying a small apartment after their wedding.
Today the 29-year-olds have been married for three years and say they have noticed that with each year, rising prices push that dream further out of reach.
Ali told Iran International that they kept hoping the next year would bring some relief to their household finances.
"But after a while, it felt like living in limbo," he said.
In March, a report from state-controlled media indicated that nearly one in three Iranians is living below the poverty line, largely due to the high inflation experienced over the past five years.
At the same time, the government’s own statistics suggest that almost six out of every 10 Iranians are neither employed or seeking work – while more than half of those who are employed are often forced to hold down a side job to make ends meet.
Like many Iranian families, the financial challenges confronting Narges and Ali, have seeped into their personal lives.
“We were just existing,” Narges said. “He worked day and night, and so did I, but each time we saved a little, the rent would go up again. One day, I looked at him, and we both knew—we were just surviving. There was nothing left between us.”
While marriage is in decline, the country is simultaneously facing the threat of a fast-declining population growth rate.
Some studies suggest that by the year 2051, around 26 million of the country's population, or one-quarter of the population, will be elderly.
Despite several massive budget allocations to a regeneration scheme, fewer babies are born each year.
Iran’s government has set an ambitious target to raise the fertility rate to 2.5 by 2028, but critics say the state has not been able to boost the living standards, with more than 35% considered to be living under the absolute poverty line according to official statistics and many more living in increasing hardship despite having multiple jobs.
An examination of rental prices in the capital and the ongoing housing crisis highlights why many families have downsized, relocated to less desirable areas, or are living indefinitely with their parents, as is the case with Leila and her fiancé.
Like Narges and Ali, Leila and her partner say securing a place to live together remains a distant dream for them.
In Tehran, the monthly rent for a one-bedroom apartment in central districts has surged to over 250 million rials (approximately $400), whereas the average household income is around 150 million rials (about $220).
With a master’s degree in accounting, 27-year-old Leila told Iran International that her job prospects are limited, and her savings minimal.
“We’re both working, but after covering expenses, there’s hardly anything left to save,” she says.
Her mother, Farideh, shared, “When I was her age, I was already married, and we had our own place. Now the struggle is just to live, forget about a wedding or children.”
According to the latest data, Alborz province, located just north of Tehran, recorded a rate of 61 divorces for every 100 marriages. Other provinces in the region, including Mazandaran to the north, Tehran itself, Gilan to the northwest, Semnan to the east, and Markazi to the southwest, are also experiencing similar trends.
Economic strain delays marriage in traditional regions
In regions where traditional marriage norms remain strong, divorce rates are lower.
The latest statistics suggest that Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari recorded 30 divorces per 100 marriages and South Khorasan 27 – both closer to the national average.
Meanwhile, Sistan and Baluchestan recorded the lowest rate, with just 10 divorces per 100 marriages.
But, the economic strain in these regions appears to impact overall low marriage rates.
Despite its resource wealth, Sistan and Baluchestan face significant challenges, including underdevelopment and poverty. Reportedly the poorest province of Iran, it has a population of 4 million, which includes about 700,000 Afghan nationals.
Over the past years, the region has experienced many crises, including shortage of fuel, bread, and drinking water, as well as drought, widespread unemployment and increasing poverty.
Hossein, a shop owner in the provincial capital Zahedan, explained that poverty among the youth is fueling disillusionment.
“Young men used to marry in their early 20s. Now, they wait until they can support a family – but that day seems further and further away,” he told Iran International.
Mehri, a 32-year-old teacher and mother of two from Semnan, says she struggles daily with her family’s financial burdens.
Her husband, once an engineer, was laid off, and she says they are now forced to survive and live on her modest teaching salary.
“There’s no peace in our home anymore,” she told Iran International.
Sociologists, including Professor K., caution that the continued trend of low marriage rates could lead to broader social challenges, including increased isolation.
“Marriage has always been a cornerstone of stability in our culture,” said Professor K. “As more families fracture under economic pressures, we risk losing the community bonds that marriage has traditionally helped to strengthen.”
With economic pressures showing no signs of abating, experts say the disintegration of traditional marriage patterns over the last decades will lead to long-term challenges for Iran's social fabric.
