Oil, gas and Iran economic analyst
Although Malaysia refutes US claims of violating sanctions on Iranian oil trade, Iran International has obtained additional evidence suggesting that shipments to China are indeed originating from Malaysia.
Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said on May 14 that there was "not one shred of evidence" of ship-to-ship transfers of sanctioned Iranian oil off Malaysia, amid U.S. concern that Iran was using Malaysian service providers to move its oil.
A senior US Treasury Department official said last week the United States saw Iran's capacity to move its oil as being reliant on providers in Malaysia.
Despite China officially reporting "zero" Iranian oil imports in its customs statistics, it is importing approximately 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian oil, according to all oil trade monitoring firms. This oil is often rebranded as originating from Malaysia, Iraq, Oman, and the UAE.
Statistical evidence
Chinese customs figures show that more than 1.1 million barrels of crude oil per day (mb/d) was imported from Malaysia last year, which is six times more than in 2018, when US started imposing oil export sanctions against Iran.
The most interesting fact is that the total daily oil production of Malaysia was about 650,000 b/d last year, 40% less than its export level to China. Furthermore, Malaysia’s own custom statistics put the total exports of crude oil and petroleum products at 186,000 b/d in 2023.
Kpler, an authoritative trade intelligence firm’s tanker tracking data shows Iran shipped 670,000 barrels per day (b/d) of oil to Malaysian waters in 2023.
A senior expert at Kpler told Iran International that the volume reached 800,000 b/d in 2024, which corresponds to more than 50% of Iran’s total oil export to China.
According to several reports in the past, Malaysian and international middlemen take the Iranian oil and after ship-to-ship transfers and rebranding, export the cargoes to China as Malaysian crude oil. Companies in Malaysia even for ship-to-ship transfers in open waters.
Tanker seizure
Malaysia seized an Indian and a Chinese tanker due to illegal ship-to-ship operations involving Iranian oil six months ago, after the advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), disclosed through satellite imagery that the two vessels were bypassing US sanctions.
Claire Jungman the chief of staff at UANI and tracker of tricky oil tankers, especially ones coming out of Iran, tweeted on October 25 that her organization identified the ARTEMIS III and Panama-flagged OCEAN HERMANA conducting an illegal ship-to-ship transfer of Iranian oil in the Riau Archipelago islands.
According to the ship tracking companies, ARTEMIS III is still at Riau Archipelago islands, while OCEAN HERMANA is located at East China Sea. It is not clear why Malaysia released the Chinese tanker, but still detains the Indian vessel.
The Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency also reported on April 24 that a tanker was seized due to “illegal anchoring” with Iranian, Pakistani and Indian crew, without giving further information.
Malaysia’s fears and interests
China's customs statistics show that Beijing had $190 billion trade turnover with Malaysia last year. Malaysia exported nearly $103 billion to China and imported $87 billion from China.
China is Malaysia's largest trading partner; but the important point here is that the United States was also its third largest trading partner last year with $65 billion turnover, of which $46 billion was Malaysia’s exports to the US.
Iran has no significant place in Malaysia's foreign trade. The statistics from the Iranian Chamber of Commerce show that Iran exported about $247 million of goods to Malaysia and imported $613 million during last Iranian fiscal year, ending March 21.
Malaysia finds itself in a precarious position between China and the United States. Enforcing American sanctions against Iran could upset China, its largest trading partner. Conversely, ignoring these violations risks repercussions from the United States, its third-largest trading partner.
Iranian media widely reported that Zibakalam, a former professor of political science at Tehran University, was arrested on Sunday by security forces while en route to the Tehran International Book Fair to unveil his new book, titled "Why Don’t They Arrest You and What Will Happen Afterwards?".
In a tweet after the news of Zibakalam’s arrest broke, Mehdi Keshtdar, managing director of the state’s judiciary news agency Mizan, denied the reports that he had been arrested on the street.
The judiciary insists that the 66-year-old academic was “summoned” to serve multiple sentences totaling three years for “propaganda against the state” as well as “spreading falsehood” on social media to affect the public’s opinion.
Zibakalam is known for speaking to foreign media on controversial matters.
His 18-month prison sentence for “propaganda against the state” by the Revolutionary Court in 2018 was for an interview with Germany’s Deutsche Welle which the court said was a "counter-revolutionary and hostile website."
In the interview, Zibakalam commented on the "disappointment of anti-government protesters with the entire regime apparatus" and said 70% of Iranians would say no to the Islamic Republic if there were a referendum to decide the type of government in Iran.
The title of his book alludes to allegations suggesting that, unlike other 'reformist' critics like former official Mostafa Tajzadeh, Zibakalam has been "immune" to arrest despite making controversial remarks over the past decade. These include his criticism of the country's nuclear policies and its anti-Israel rhetoric.
This immunity was believed to be due to Zibakalam never advocating for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic.
“Who says we should destroy Israel?” Zibakalam who openly voiced his recognition of the State of Israel asked in an interview with historian and filmmaker Hossein Dehbashi in 2014. “It’s no joke when you write ‘Israel must be destroyed’ on your missiles’,” he said.
Zibakalam refusing to step on American and Israeli flags in 2021
“Israel has never said it wants to destroy us ... Even Palestinians recognize Israel. We are more catholic than the pope,” Zibakalam, who is supportive of the right of the Palestinians to have their own state, said in a debate in 2015.
In April last year he said “annihilation of Israel and fighting America” were not among the goals of the Islamic Revolution of 1979 and these slogans were often used by authorities to justify their failures.
In January, Zibakalam came under massive attacks from hardliners after he said Israel “does not kill innocent people” in an interview.
Many dissidents argue that not being arrested after such bold criticism is evidence that Zibakalam is “the regime’s safety valve” and his activities serve the authorities’ wish to show that freedom of expression exists in the Islamic Republic.
“Good! Zibakalam is NOT opposing the mullah regime in Iran but [is] in fact a willful propaganda stooge & proud Jew-hater. The regime parades him out in front of TV cameras often to claim they allow ‘criticism’ of their policies. He's a regime loyalist & a FRAUD!,” California-based Iran commentator Karmel Melamed tweeted after Zibakalam’s arrest.
Others, including some of his critics, have risen to his defense in principle.
"Now that he has fallen from grace, I have always been opposed to #SadeghZibakalam, from explicit criticisms in class to heated debates face-to-face at conferences, and later by denying and rejecting his positions and track record in public. But today, I definitely say that his arrest is unacceptable, and he should be released,” Tirdad Bonakdar, a member of the Central Committee of the banned National Front, founded by nationalist Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1949, wrote on X.
Recently, Zibakalam said in a tweet that the security outfit at Allameh Tabataba'i University had not allowed him to enter the campus to participate in a debate to which he was invited by the hardliner Students Basij militia.
Within a day of his arrest this weekend, Zibakalam’s book became unavailable on Tehran's Digikala online shop – an Iranian e-commerce company. It’s unclear whether the book sold out or if the retailer was instructed to remove it from its online platform.
