War worry mounts in Iran after latest Trump threat
Maryam Sinaiee
Iran International
Anxiety and disinformation are swirling in Iran as the latest threat of a military attack by US president Donald Trump has many fearing war.
Iran International
Anxiety and disinformation are swirling in Iran as the latest threat of a military attack by US president Donald Trump has many fearing war.
Trump warned on Monday that he would hold Iran and its leadership responsible if its Houthi allies retaliated for dozens of US air strikes on the Tehran-backed group.
The ultimatum followed a demand by the hawkish president the week before that Iran agree to a new nuclear deal or face attack.
Official media zealously swatted away apparently baseless reports circulating on social media on Monday evening that the US military had sunk Iran’s reconnaissance ship Zagros in the Red Sea.
Saberin News, a Telegram channel with nearly a million followers reportedly linked to the Revolutionary Guards, denied on Tuesday the presence of any Iranian navy ships in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Indian Ocean.
Iran's national currency plummeted to an unprecedented low on Trump's ominous remarks, with the rial falling past the 1,000,000-per-dollar threshold in the open market.
“The reason for the spike in foreign exchange rates is the US attack on Houthis and the expectation that Iran will be the next target,” Morteza, a businessman in Tehran, told Iran International on Tuesday.
“Interestingly, people are not afraid of war although they think it is inevitable this time. They believe it will only be the government who will bear the brunt of an attack, should it materialize, and that they will come to no harm themselves,” he added.
According to Iranian-Canadian political analyst Shahir Shahidsaless, Trump may be laying the groundwork for military action against Iran if negotiations fail, either due to Iran’s refusal to engage, a lack of flexibility in talks, or if IAEA chief Rafael Grossi’s June report confirms that Tehran is rapidly advancing its nuclear program.
In a post on X on Tuesday, Shahidsaless suggested that the US operation against the Houthis could be a prelude to an attack on the Islamic Republic.
Meanwhile, Nour News, a media outlet close to Iran's Supreme National Security Council suggested on Tuesday that Tehran could withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if Trump acts on what it called his "delusion" that Iran seeks nuclear weapons.
A pro-government Iranian Middle East analyst and university lecturer, Mostafa Najafi, claimed in a post on X Monday that the United States has sent a backchannel message to Iran demanding the removal of its military and intelligence ships from the Red Sea and set a deadline.
According to Najafi, Iran has also warned “through its UN mission and at the military level against any American adventurism against its positions, interests, and assets.”
At the UN Security Council Monday evening, Iran's ambassador Amir-Saeid Iravani called Trump’s statements reckless and provocative and warned that any act of aggression against Iran could have severe consequences for international peace and security.
"Iran strongly and categorically rejects any accusation on the violation of relevant Security Council resolutions on arms embargoes in Yemen or involvement in any destabilizing activities in the region," Iravani said on Monday.
Iran and the Houthis have denied close military coordination, but weapons experts have linked the Yemeni fighters' advanced arsenal of anti-ship and ballistic missiles to Iranian technology. Iran has long presented the Houthis as an important part of its so-called "Axis of Resistance" against Israel and the United States.
The decision of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) not to enforce the controversial law could not have been made without the approval of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has avoided discussing the issue in his speeches for months.
Enforcing the morality legislation—which imposes severe penalties, including heavy fines and prison sentences on women who violate strict hijab rules, as well as businesses that fail to comply—could be highly provocative under current conditions, potentially sparking widespread anti-government protests.
Internal clash over the enforcement of the hijab law
Mahmoud Nabavian, a senior member of the hardline Paydari (Steadfastness) Party and the Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, is facing backlash from his allies after condemning recent protests led by radical elements. His remarks have surprised many within his faction, where he was long regarded as a key figure and a strict enforcer of their agenda.
Despite playing a key role in drafting the hijab legislation, Nabavian now argues that preserving the Islamic Republic must take precedence over enforcing the law—implicitly acknowledging the risk of unrest. “If implementing the hijab law creates tensions and weakens the system, it should automatically be set aside,” he said last week.
According to the Islamic Republic’s founder, Ruhollah Khomeini, preserving the system must take “utmost priority,” even if it requires temporarily setting aside religious obligations like prayer and fasting. By that logic, hijab would be no exception—a stance authorities now seem compelled to accept, much to the frustration of the hardline political and religious establishment.
Concerns over national stability
Nabavian justified the security council’s suspension of the hijab law by pointing to major geopolitical developments—the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. He argued that enforcing the law at this time could provide foreign adversaries with an opportunity to destabilize Iran.
“Given the country’s and the region’s current conditions, especially the situation in Yemen, and the need for national unity, we must all support the implementation of the law but polarizing the society, calling for illegal gatherings, and staging street protests—no matter the faction—are against the country’s interests,” Nabavian warned in an X post on Sunday. His remarks came after the US military launched massive airstrikes against Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen on Saturday.
Hasan Soleimani, editor-in-chief of the hardline Mashregh News, a publication believed to be linked to the Revolutionary Guards Intelligence Organization (SAS), defended Nabavian’s position. In an X post, he accused radical hardliners of using the hijab issue as a pretext to disrupt the country’s stability. He went further, comparing them to the Forqan group—an Islamist faction that carried out assassinations against officials of the newly established Islamic Republic, including a failed attempt on Khamenei’s life in 1981.
Highlighting defiance of Khamenei’s decisions
Nabavian also accused ultra-hardliners—whom he refers to as “super-revolutionaries” or “radicals”—of openly defying Khamenei, citing their opposition to Covid vaccination. “I won’t even mention the disgraceful remarks they made [about Khamenei’s own vaccination],” he said last week. He also linked their defiance to more recent criticism over Iran’s two-month delay in 2024 before retaliating against Israel’s attack on Iranian military facilities—a decision ultimately made by Khamenei.
Similarly, if Khamenei decides to permit direct talks with the Trump administration in the coming weeks or months, ultra-hardliners’ reaction could pose a significant challenge. He ruled out the possibility of such talks in a recent speech and has so far not acknowledged the US President’s letter to him. Former President Hassan Rouhani suggested a few days ago that Khamenei’s stance could change depending on circumstances, as it did in 2013 when he allowed secret talks with the US.
Warnings of a fragile political climate
Citing the hardliners' protests in Mashhad against moderate conservative Hassan Rouhani’s government on December 28, 2017, some media outlets and analysts have warned that demonstrations organized by “super-revolutionaries” could similarly spiral out of control.
The Mashhad protests quickly spread nationwide, with demonstrators in several cities chanting against Khamenei. The weeklong unrest resulted in at least 25 deaths and thousands of arrests.
However, the current situation is fundamentally different from 2017, an article in the reformist Etemad daily warned on Sunday. It pointed to Trump's presence in the White House and heightened regional tensions, citing a statement from the Supreme National Security Council Secretariat that cautioned any provocation or political polarization could cause irreparable damage to the country.
