Iran International
Signs of unease are surfacing in Tehran as the two-month clock reportedly set by Washington to reach a nuclear deal runs down and European powers move to revive UN sanctions suspended under the 2015 agreement.
Iranian and US officials held their first round of indirect talks in Oman on April 12. That leaves just two weeks before President Donald Trump’s reported deadline expires.
Without a deal, the E3—France, Germany, and the United Kingdom—are expected to trigger the dispute resolution mechanism at the next board meeting of the UN nuclear watchdog in June. That would lead to the automatic return of UN sanctions on Iran by October.
“Delay in decision-making amounts to surrendering to a scenario of war and economic collapse,” wrote attorney Massad Saliti in Iran Diplomacy, an outlet close to the Foreign Ministry.
“If the Iranian government fails to find a diplomatic solution within this short window, pressure from the United States, Europe, and Israel could threaten the country's stability to an unprecedented degree,” he added.
Saliti outlined three challenges Iran could face beyond Washington’s maximum pressure campaign if talks fail: first, the E3 may “snap back” all UN sanctions; second, Israel may strike unilaterally; and third, domestic unrest could flare up, fueled by deepening economic isolation.
None of these scenarios appear imminent. Officials in Tehran and Washington have so far maintained cautious optimism that negotiations will bear fruit. But as Trump said Wednesday, everything could change with “one phone call.”
He put it more bluntly on Friday: “Iran does not want to be blown up. They would rather make a deal. And I think that could happen in the not-too-distant future.”
Europeans’ Role
Disagreements with Europe may also complicate Iran’s separate negotiations with the US, wrote foreign policy commentator Jalal Khoshchehreh in Khabar Online.
“Iran, the United States, and Europe remain firmly entrenched behind their respective red lines, making meaningful concessions difficult,” he argued, calling the situation “alarming for all parties involved.”
Still, one hopeful sign remains, Khoshchehreh wrote---that Washington and Tehran are actively looking for ways to keep talks alive. For once, he said, US officials sound more pragmatic than their E3 counterparts.
The E3’s hard line, he argued, may be both a reaction to and a reflection of their diminished influence. But their stance would matter little if Washington and Tehran reach a deal.
“It is Tehran and Washington that must sign any potential agreement. Therefore, despite the E3’s nay-saying in tandem with Tel Aviv, if the two main parties find a ‘balance point’ between their red lines, others will have no choice but to follow,” Khoshchehreh wrote.
Saliti went further.
“Iranian officials," he wrote, "should make the most of the remaining time to … urgently and transparently reach a comprehensive and lasting agreement—one that addresses all aspects of Iran’s nuclear program, missile activities, and regional engagements.”
Ali has been living in Canada for eleven years. When he and his wife immigrated, the Islamic Republic's embassy in Ottawa had already been closed, with diplomatic ties severed two years earlier.
Although Ali has never returned to Iran since arriving in Canada, his wife has made necessary trips back and had to renew her Iranian passport through the Interests Section of the Islamic Republic in Washington, DC.
One of these renewals contained legal errors — leaving her stranded in Iran at the time of the downing of Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752.
On January 8, 2020, amid heightened tensions between Iran and the US following the killing of Qassem Soleimani, Flight PS752 was shot down by two missiles fired by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) just six minutes after takeoff from Tehran.
All 176 people on board — as well as an unborn child — were killed.
Of those passengers, 138 were ultimately headed to Canada. The loss of 55 Canadian citizens and 30 permanent residents turned the downing into a national tragedy and further deepened the diplomatic rift between Ottawa and Tehran.
Canada cut diplomatic ties with Iran and shut down its embassy in Tehran in 2012, citing several concerns: Iran’s support for the Assad regime during the Syrian civil war, its defiance of United Nations resolutions on its nuclear program, ongoing threats against Israel, and security risks to Canadian diplomats after the British embassy in Tehran was attacked in breach of the Vienna Convention.
Iran’s message to Canada’s new government
In a rare development, CBC's senior international correspondent Margaret Evans was granted access to Iran earlier this month. During a press conference, she asked Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, about the future of diplomatic relations with Canada.
Baghaei responded: "The relationship was frozen unilaterally by Canada, not by Iran, and we never welcomed that decision because we think that decision was not for the benefit of either of the two nations."
He added: "I think it's for Canada to decide what course of action they want to take. I think the first step they have to take is to unravel the many sanctions and restraints that they have imposed on themselves and on our bilateral relations. We were never in favor of severing ties. Hundreds of thousands of Iranians live in Canada, and they were the first to suffer from this situation."
But for many in the Iranian-Canadian community, the presence of an Iranian embassy in Canada is not seen as benign — nor missed.
A matter of security and influence
Many Iranian Canadians argue that Iranian embassies abroad function less as diplomatic institutions and more as extensions of the regime’s intelligence and influence operations.
Critics say these missions monitor dissidents and facilitate connections with proxy groups abroad.
Ali, for one, opposes any effort to reopen the Islamic Republic’s embassy in Canada. "Despite weak immigration enforcement that has allowed many former regime officials to settle here," he says.
"The continued closure of the Islamic Republic's embassy in Ottawa has at least prevented further infiltration and harmful activity."
Canada’s official position: no plans to reengage
The Canadian government has made it clear that it has no intention of reestablishing diplomatic ties under current conditions. In response to a request from Iran International, Global Affairs Canada stated:
“Iran must make fundamental changes in its behavior — both domestically and internationally — before the re-establishment of diplomatic relations with Canada can be considered.”
The statement went on to say that Canada remains deeply concerned about:
Until meaningful change is seen, Canada will continue its pressure campaign, which includes:
Conservatives: No normalization with a terrorist state
Since the beginning of Iran’s “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement in 2022, Canadians have repeatedly expressed support for the Iranian people. In 2024, the Canadian government officially listed the IRGC as a terrorist organization — a move long advocated by Conservatives.
Garnett Genuis, the Conservative MP who first introduced a motion in 2018 to designate the IRGC as a terrorist entity, reaffirmed his party’s position in an exclusive comment to Iran International:
“Proposals to re-establish ties with this extremist, terrorist-supporting regime are completely unacceptable. While the Liberals have historically supported reopening relations, Conservatives are proud of our record of standing up to the regime and supporting the Iranian people.”
“The Iranian people deserve the opportunity to choose a government that reflects their aspirations for justice and peace. We stand with the people of Iran — not the regime. That will not change.”
Diplomacy — or expanded access for the Islamic Republic?
Some argue that diplomatic relations might help resolve bilateral issues — such as the investigation into the downing of PS752. Others believe such ties only give the Islamic Republic more room to maneuver. They point to countries like Sweden and the UK, where Iranian embassies exist but have done little to increase Tehran’s accountability.
Iranian Canadians have voiced their stance clearly in recent years. Tens of thousands have participated in public rallies, demonstrating not only their distance from the clerical establishment, but also their commitment to keeping Canada informed about the real demands of the Iranian people.
Today, many like Ali say they are willing to accept the consular complications that come with the absence of an embassy — if it means limiting the Islamic Republic’s access and influence in Canada.
